ANDREA VANCE
‘‘It is perplexing why Team Muller had such a clumsy start, after plotting for months, and assembling an artful team of insiders.’’
Economic recessions create winners and losers. By the end of last week, Todd Muller was looking like one of the losers. The Wellington commentariat had largely decided his first week as National leader was uniformly awful.
Mired in chaos and confusion, the party lurched from a mini-scandal about a baseball cap, to an unfathomable gaffe by his new deputy Nikki Kaye.
These conversations reverberated around the square mile of Pipitea, and Muller was found wanting.
It is perplexing why Team Muller had such a clumsy start, after plotting for months, and assembling an artful team of insiders that includes PR practitioner Matthew Hooton and dark-arts kingmakers Crosby Textor.
But the subjective judgements of a handful of Beehive pundits on perceived performance flaws are now more insignificant than ever.
An economic shock has ricocheted around the world. Voters are consumed with worry about their jobs, mortgages and how to pay their bills.
In a political environment where most people would struggle to name the Cabinet, it’s hard to see people getting too exercised about the make-up of the Opposition’s front bench, or which keepsakes a leader displays on his shelf.
The campaign to introduce Muller to wider New Zealander should have been slicker.
But the unsophisticated start is not fatal. Everyone loves an underdog – and in the race against deified Jacinda Ardern, Muller is the longest of shots.
He has just weeks to undermine the most
popular leader in living memory.
His first policy – to award small business $10,000 for each new hire – was a nod to struggling middle New Zealand.
It’s hard to find much wrong with it – even Finance Minister Grant Robertson gave it a resentful nod. But it was uninspiring, small fry – the kind of ‘‘announceable’’ you dress up to convince news reporters to give coverage to a speech.
The speech itself was full of snackable soundbites. ‘‘Heroes of the economic crisis . . . backbone of the economy.’’
There was no discernible Muller vision. No priorities for his first few months in office. And no bold, alternative ideas for the post-coronavirus economic recovery.
Close your eyes and the words could have come from the mouths of any notable National figure of the past decade: John Key, Bill English, Steven Joyce. And perhaps the tried-and-tested will be an adequate strategy.
Successive election wins have seen National rely on the idea that they are the best economic managers, who steered the country through the global financial crisis and Canterbury earthquakes.
While trust in Ardern is high, Labour still strives for economic credibility, after a decade of doubt over their fiscal capability.
In the face of soaring unemployment and plummeting house prices, middle voters may pause for thought.
People who care passionately about inequality, over-tourism and climate change in the good times, tend to be less progressive when their personal economic circumstances are shaken.
If National can play on that doubt: and convince centre voters they must make a choice between which priority they value the most, then middle-of-the road Muller may just come out a winner.
There was no discernible Muller vision. No priorities for his first few months in office. And no bold, alternative ideas for the post-coronavirus economic recovery.