ACT's remarkable revival down to one man
If history repeats, David Seymour’s problems start tomorrow, warns another former party leader.
THE celebrations for ACT’s extraordinary victory were likely to go long into the night.
After years of being kept on life support by Epsom voters, ACT leader David Seymour has dragged his party back from the dead.
ACT was on 7.6 per cent last night, thanks to disaffected National voters and former supporters of NZ First – a result unheard of even three years ago.
Nine MPs will join Seymour in Parliament.
In 2017, ACT polled a miserly 0.5 per cent of the vote, or just 13,075 votes, surviving only by dint of Seymour’s blue-ribbon Epsom seat, which has long been held by ACT thanks to National supporters voting strategically.
That kept ACT in Parliament even though it has fallen well below the 5 per cent threshold for the previous five elections.
ACT’s Houdini-like escape from political oblivion is entirely down to Seymour; three years ago he was still a virtual unknown, with almost zero name recognition.
But an unlikely turn on entertainment show Dancing with the Stars and his championing of euthanasia through his End of Life Choice Act raised the ACT leader’s profile and his standing with voters.
Seymour has also been assiduous, however, at hoovering up small but significant constituencies, including the influential gun lobby, after being the sole MP to vote against Labour’s gun buyback laws, which were rushed through Parliament after the Christchurch mosque attacks.
His championing of controversial speakers under the banner of free speech laws also cemented him as the antiestablishment voice, wooing across many former NZ First supporters.
Seymour brings a bunch of unknown faces into Parliament with him, though his number two, Brooke van Velden, is well known around Parliament for her work shepherding through the End of Life Choice Act.
The party’s third-ranked MP, Nicole McKee, also has some public profile through her advocacy as head of the Council of Licenced Firearms Owners.
Others include a secondary school teacher, a self- described sea kayaker and deck builder, a self-employed businesswoman, a farmer and mental health worker, among others.
Academic Grant Duncan said ACT supporters taking part in the recent Stuff- Massey survey of more than 70,000 voters suggested Seymour’s support was heavily skewed to men ( 79.5 per cent of respondents compared with 61.2 per cent overall), and there was a slightly higher representation of business owners.
Former UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne says Seymour should enjoy the moment while he can, because there will be a hard road ahead with his caucus of untested first-time MPs.
Dunne should know; he took UnitedFuture from zero to hero almost overnight in 2002, following a successful leaders’ debate, which catapulted an extra seven MPs into Parliament with him.
But three years later the caucus was in disarray as rifts appeared between Dunne and United’s Christian faction over issues including the controversial ‘‘smacking’’ ban.
Dunne said Seymour’s biggest challenge would be dampening down the expectations of his new MPs.
‘‘People when they first get elected think they’ve been elected on their own merits, on their own ideas, and their hobby horses and everything else can now be pursued.
‘‘ Actually you’ve got to be disciplined and understand what the team brand is and hold to that.’’
They would also be under personal pressure, especially those who weren’t expecting to be in Parliament until quite recently.
‘‘ There’s going to be issues that they’re going to have to deal with, for instance, getting out of their existing jobs, getting their family used to the idea they’re going to be away several days a week and this is not something you do on a part- time basis; there’s a lot of challenges below the surface that will need to be addressed and thrashed out pretty early if they’re going to function effectively.’’
Dunne said he believed Seymour had done a good job in the last three years; partly because of the End of Life Choice Act, but also by being so ‘‘dogged and on message’’.
But the test would be making sure last night’s success was ‘‘not a one-off’’.
History suggests that may not be easy: In its 1990s heyday, ACT was polling at around 7 per cent.
But its support started to slump as National’s fortunes revived, initially under former leader Don Brash (who subsequently led ACT for a brief period), and later during the John Key and Bill English years.
ACT’s slump was also hastened by a series of scandals and its loss of direction after the retirement of former ACT leader Richard Prebble.