An extraordinary result for extraordinary times
An unprecedented election result in unprecedented times. There is no other way to describe Labour’s win last night; it’s more than a rout, it’s history in the making.
It could take years for National to lick its wounds over this loss; even the safest blue seats, like Ilam, tumbled under the force of the Labour wave.
But there’s no time to party. No matter how you voted, today we can all be relieved that a marathon election campaign is finally over.
Election campaigns inevitably trigger a period of economic stasis and this one has already gone on too long.
When the incoming government ministers head to Wellington tomorrow they will have a mountain of urgent decisions on their desks that will need to be made.
Last night’s vote is largely an acknowledgement of that fact. It’s a vote for continuity at a time when we are facing enough massive change without throwing a change of government into the mix.
It’s also history making. For the first time ever under MMP, New Zealanders have backed one party government to navigate us through these uncertain times.
It’s an extraordinary result, made possible only by Jacinda Ardern’s extraordinary leadership during some of the most extraordinary events in New Zealand’s history. A mass terrorism attack. A volcanic eruption. And the mother of all disasters, Covid-19.
Ardern truly has been a leader for the times. But the next three years will be even more testing; Ardern’s pool of political capital is not bottomless, and will have to be raided sooner rather than later as her Government is forced to make some unpopular decisions.
So far, her leadership has been a phenomenon; she has been loved and feted, whether overseas, or at home. When the gloss wears off, as it always does, her strengths will become her weaknesses. Empathy will look like deflection. The blow torch will go on the failures in child poverty and housing. Ardern may have to get used to being unloved.
Ardern might cope with that; her supporters may not. The grassroots will be barracking for Ardern to use her overwhelming mandate to scratch every ideological itch.
But Ardern and her finance minister Grant Robertson have boxed themselves into the centre with a campaign that reached across to soft National voters.
Cementing that support will be a much harder task, given the scale of problems ahead.
Our success at beating Covid – not once, but twice – has masked a deepening economic crisis.
Productivity and wages lag behind our nearest neighbour, Australia, and the gap is likely to grow.
We’ve got a crazy, out of kilter housing market, that is driving an even deeper wedge between the haves and the have-nots.
The costs of keeping jobs and businesses afloat during Covid have plunged the nation deep into debt and there is no obvious way of quickly earning it back yet.
Two big sectors of the economy – tourism and international education – have been smashed, and immigration fuelled growth has been halted in its tracks.
Billions of dollars of extra infrastructure spending is due to be rolled out, even while hospitals and schools and other essential services cry poor.
And that’s not even counting the potential cost of another Covid breakout and lockdown.
So today is for partying. But tomorrow starts the job of living up to promise of last night’s win.