NZ returns to ‘unbridled power’

In 1979, freshly elected Labour MP Geoffrey Palmer wrote a book on New Zealand’s political landscape titled Unbridled Power.

Although the title referred to New Zealand’s lack of constitutional constraints on governments and their leaders in general, it was given added pointedness by the willingness of Prime Minister Rob Muldoon to push the boundaries of the few conventions constraining his power.

That, and the near-revolution of Rogernomics that transformed the New Zealand economy during the 1980s, brought about a parallel near-revolution in our politics, with the switch to MMP in 1996.

The by then ex-Prime Minister, Sir Geoffrey, tweaked his title to Bridled Power to reflect the new political setup designed to ensure multi-party government, with no single party or leader being able to operate without constraint.

And here we are again.

Labour looks almost certain to not only be able to govern alone, but with a healthy margin of seats, and close to half the party vote. Not only has that never happened under MMP, but you have to go back to 1951 to find a party that got more than 50 per cent of the popular vote.

And that National victory was against the background of the massive industrial disruption of the waterfront dispute, and at a time when Labour and National routinely got 99 per cent of the vote between them, with minor parties virtually non-existent.

I’m not suggesting that Jacinda Ardern is a closet Muldoon, or that Grant Robertson is going to take a wrecking ball to the government apparatus and superstructure of the economy like Roger Douglas. But we have to ask if last night’s result is what the clear majority of New Zealanders who voted for MMP in 1993, and again in 2011, thought was the way it would work.

Aspects of MMP are still healthy – the strong showing by both the Greens and ACT show that we’re not heading back to the two-party dominance of the firstpast-the-post days, which seemed where we might have been heading after the 2017 election.

Labour and National got more than 80 per cent of the vote between them in 2017 – last night’s result looked to be more like 75 per cent combined, more similar to 2014.

The so-called ‘‘wasted vote’’ is around 8 per cent, and has gone in all directions, with NZ First down with minnows such as TOP, the New Conservatives and the Ma¯ori Party.

The substantial number of political misfits and malcontents who formerly rallied to Winston Peters’s banner have gone in all directions. Their lack of representation in Parliament, and the rise of outspoken conspiracy theorists, such as Billy Te Kahika’s Advance New Zealand, is a worrying development for our democracy.

So New Zealand politics is now in territory that it hasn’t traversed for almost 30 years – one-party government, and one party with a healthy majority at that.

Labour may well come to some sort of agreement on support with the Greens but they won’t be beholden to them, and they certainly won’t be the ‘‘handbrake’’ that NZ First claimed to be.

With both major party leaders supporting a switch to a four-year term during this campaign, the need for constitutional reform to hinder a return to unbridled power is once again on our political agenda.

New Zealand politics is now in territory that it hasn’t traversed for almost 30 years.