Election may help to ease year of turmoil
Half a century after the execution of leftist firebrand Ernesto ‘‘Che’’ Guevara in the Bolivian jungle, the forces of the political right and left are once again waging ideological war in the impoverished Andean nation.
Bolivia is heading towards a bitterly disputed presidential vote today, the outcome of which could spark violence regardless of the winner.
The vote pits the socialists of Evo Morales, who ran the country for 13 years before he fled last year, against rivals who are labouring to thwart their return to power. Each side claims that the other is planning to cheat to win.
The result could have broad implications across the region. Bolivian elections are seen as a referendum on Latin American socialism, and a gauge of the strength of democracy in a part of the world that has grown increasingly disillusioned with it.
Bolivia presents a window into a deeply polarised society, where elections are fought in ugly, threatening language and waged with seemingly existential stakes.
‘‘In a way, it’s very similar to the US presidential race,’’ said Diego von Vacano, a political scientist at Texas A&M University, who provided informal advice to the campaign of socialist front-runner Luis Arce. ‘‘ In terms of polarisation, and rival claims of fraud ahead of the vote, they are now in comparable situations.’’
The special election to choose a permanent successor to Morales was delayed several times amid Bolivia’s coronavirus outbreak.
Arce, a 57-year-old economist, is trying to reclaim the presidency for Morales’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Arce’s main opponents, centrist former president Carlos Mesa, 67, and right-wing nationalist Luis Fernando Camacho, 41, have embraced a common refrain: for the good of Bolivia’s future, the socialists must be stopped.
Nevertheless, polls suggest that the socialists remain the most popular political force in Bolivia, if not quite as popular as they once were.
The big question is whether cool heads will prevail as ballots are cast and counted. Last year’s vote was marred by violence.
Morales, who was seeking a controversial fourth term, appeared to be headed to a narrow first-round victory when the Organisation of American States reported serious irregularities. Clashes between Morales’s supporters and opponents intensified, the police and military withdrew their support, and he fled into exile, decrying a ‘‘coup’’.
Morales has been barred from running this year. Now in Argentina, he has been the MAS campaign manager.
Suggestions by socialist militants that they will take to the streets if Arce fails to win in the first round have fanned concern of a replay of last year’s violence – as have fears that rightwing paramilitary groups may seek to do the same.
Morales’s ouster brought to power US-backed interim president Jeanine Anez. Last ´month she withdrew her candidacy for the election amid dismal poll numbers, due in part to what many Bolivians view as her government’s botched response to the coronavirus crisis.
The Anez government and its supporters fear retribution if the socialists win.
In the aftermath of Morales’s exile, Anez presided over a wave of repression that led to the detention of hundreds of leftists, the muzzling of journalists, and a ‘‘national pacification’’ campaign that left at least 31 people dead, according to Bolivia’s national ombudsman and human rights groups.
Morales, who presided over a region-leading reduction in poverty during his 13-year tenure but became increasingly authoritarian as he clung to power in his final years, looms over the race. Arce, who was his finance minister, has sought to distance himself from his former boss.