Tracy Watkins

National needed the jolt

The four stages of Opposition are delusion, panic, acceptance and renewal. National was largely stuck in the first phase after the previous election; the delusion that as long as it stayed the course, voters will have realised their mistake by the time the next election came round.

It was founded in the absolute certainty that the Key Government’s economic legacy would tide them over.

I saw it in Labour after its loss in 2008 as well. The Phil Goff option was the status quo, his leadership grounded in the belief that Labour in 2011 could pick up where the Clark Government left off after voters had seen through John Key.

National felt robbed in 2017, which only bolstered its delusion that voters would return home in three years’ time.

But it entered phase two – panic – slightly ahead of schedule. It’s easy to forget that during Labour’s revolving door period between 2008 and 2017, Goff led the party through a full term before stepping aside after the 2011 election loss.

Simon Bridges’ leadership didn’t even make it to the election. It took just a couple of bad polls and one disastrous social media post to light the fire under National’s panic and he was gone.

But his leadership had probably been irretrievably damaged anyway by destabilising leaks, backstabbing and back-room plots.

That MPs would behave so badly always beggars belief, given that it runs completely counter to the long-held political wisdom that voters punish disunity and disloyalty.

But to be fair, demanding loyalty to a failing leader is like asking people to stand back and let others pass while the ship goes down.

And so to the next stage, acceptance, which is probably still a way off for National after such a defeat. But a trouncing is probably what was needed to jolt the party into accepting that it no longer represents mainstream opinion.

That it seemed bereft of new ideas was laid bare by the tired policies it took to the polls. At a time of huge and profound change, it trotted out old faithfuls like more roads, tax cuts, and cracking down on law and order.

Whether Judith Collins and Gerry Brownlee were the right choice up against Jacinda Ardern is neither here nor there. Todd Muller’s disastrous and ill-timed run left them no choice but to step up.

Regardless, it’s a given that neither Collins or Brownlee is the face of National’s future.

Just what that face looks like is still an open question. The party’s future direction and philosophy will likely be shaped by a prolonged period of introspection and internal debate about where things went so wrong in 2020.

There is likely to be plenty more blood on the floor; the election delivered a rump of deeply conservative, Christian MPs who will butt up against National’s more liberal wing.

History suggests that should things follow the usual political cycle, National will eventually emerge out the other side. We’ve seen both Labour and National go through these cycles and come back stronger.

But that is entirely in the hands of Nationals MPs.

National offered tired policies at a time of profound change.