Why Biden v Trump matters here in NZ
With just three days until the election in the US, the world is holding its collective breath wondering if American voters will grant controversial President Donald Trump a second term or instead choose a very different path by electing former Vice President Joe Biden.
Polls suggest Trump’s chances are even worse than in 2016, but almost noone assumes his defeat is a forgone conclusion.
For New Zealand, will the outcome matter? Absolutely. The US’ longstanding role as a – if not the – world leader, the size of its economy and strength of its military all mean the election matters for everyone on the planet, and especially New Zealand and other traditional American allies and trading partners.
Here are three ways New Zealanders are likely to notice a significant difference between a Biden presidency compared to a second Trump term.
First is the personal relationship between the leaders of our governments. While it’s perhaps the least tangible consequence, a strong relationship between leaders can matter greatly in international relations.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been cordial and restrained in her dealings with, and comments about, Trump. But it’s safe to say the relationship has been a bit frosty from the beginning – and has got cooler.
In their first meeting, Trump commented within earshot of Ardern (apparently jokingly) ‘‘This lady caused a lot of upset in her country’’. After repeating the comment, Ardern famously replied, ‘‘You know, no-one marched when I was elected’’.
More recently Trump’s comments about the ‘‘big surge in New Zealand’’ Covid cases in August rankled many New Zealanders including Ardern, and Trump was conspicuously absent from the world leaders who congratulate Ardern on her election victory.
Ardern’s policy views are much more compatible with Biden and he has a more consistently favourable view towards America’s traditional allies, of which New Zealand is one. Plus, Ardern and Biden are both perhaps best known for their public expressions of empathy – quite the opposite of
Trump in that respect. So, chances are good that a Biden victory will mean warmer relations between our leaders.
A second consequence, not just for New Zealand but the world, is a signal as to whether nationalism and populism will continue to rise across the globe. The election in recent years of Boris Johnson in the UK, Narenda Modi in India, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil – just to name three often placed alongside Trump – has been a troubling sign for those committed to democracy, the rule of law and international relations.
The conspicuous correlation of populist leaders and Covid-19 calamity in their countries has placed an unflattering spotlight on these nationalist leaders. A Trump defeat could signal a welcome counter-trend and a Biden presidency would signal a return to supporting the institutions that enable democracy.
The third most tangible effect will be seen in international co-operation. Trump and Biden have fundamentally different views on international relations. Biden’s instincts are toward multilateral collaboration to address world problems – an approach which takes a long view, accepting short-term compromises for long-term gain.
Trump’s ‘‘America First’’ policy is more transactional, engaging with other countries with a primary focus on shortterm gains: who pays and how much. A Trump-led US would prefer to go it alone rather than suffer the compromises that multilateral international agreements often entail.
Trump followed through on his promises to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, the TransPacific Partnership, the Iran nuclear deal and the World Health Organisation. While each of those withdrawals was viewed with surprise and regret by traditional US allies, the agreement that many fear is in his cross-hairs next is even more worrisome: Nato.
Although not a member of Nato, its dissolution would be of great consequence to New Zealand, given the strong stabilising role it has played in world affairs.
Biden on the other hand would immediately look to rebuild and shore up multilateral alliances, starting with Nato. He has also signalled he would rejoin the Paris Agreement immediately. Re-joining the TPP and Iran nuclear agreement are not as simple, but there’s little question that they are the sorts of multilateral cooperative arrangements he would try to develop.
The pandemic has made global interconnectedness more obvious than ever and the search for a vaccine shows the need for collaboration. But developing vaccines gets us only part way to a postCovid world. The distribution of vaccines will depend greatly on whether the leader of the country in which it’s developed sees international agreements on such issues in transactional terms, such as America First, or in terms of global cooperation. In tackling even more difficult problems, like climate change, those differences will be magnified many times.