Ardern’s iron fist in a velvet glove

If Jacinda Ardern has started as she means to go on expect some steely leadership over the next three years. Don’t be fooled by Ardern’s apparent generosity in her dealings with the Greens by offering them two ministerial portfolios ahead of her government being sworn in next week.

The Green Party rank and file would much rather trade meaningful policy gains for the ‘‘baubles of office’’, as the two ministerial portfolios would be viewed. Especially when the deal effectively gags Shaw and Davidson from criticising Labour in their portfolio areas.

The deal also stops the Greens from voting against Labour on confidence and supply, one of the few ways a minor party can flex its muscle – even though doing so would have little chance of bringing the Labour government down, because of its big parliamentary majority.

It’s constraints like this that have nearly destroyed other minor parties in the past – and the Greens activist base is highly antagonistic to the compromises required to secure ministerial power.

Party members have clearly decided to swallow it – although there would likely be many wondering if three years unshackled from Labour might be healthier for the party in the long run.

The ‘‘cooperation agreement’’ between the two parties falls a long way short of power-sharing; Ardern made it clear a coalition deal was never on the table, showing that she is not squeamish about using the very strong hand that voters dealt her.

Any why not? Ardern has been thrust into a once-in-a-lifetime position by the October 17 election. The 2023 election is highly unlikely to deliver the next prime minister anything like the power Ardern currently enjoys.

After three years using the NZ First handbrake as its excuse for a lack of progress, Labour has to show it is willing to use the mandate it was given.

So the deal offered to the Greens was mostly a gesture to show Labour was still operating in the spirit of MMP, even though in reality it doesn’t need them and the deal reflected that.

Ardern’s next test will be tomorrow when she names her Cabinet. Part way through his second term, John Key shocked his caucus and the pundits by sacking underperforming ministers Phil Heatley and Kate Wilkinson.

Ardern could make a similarly bold gesture by sacking her biggest Cabinet liability, Phil Twyford, whose failures in housing and transport dogged Labour in its first term.

It would be a stake in the ground and answer Labour’s critics that behind Ardern and her finance minister Grant Robertson are only a handful of competent Cabinet ministers doing all the heavy-lifting – probably the biggest perception Labour needs to shift this term. It will also give her room to promote some of those jostling for ascendency on a very crowded back bench.

Ardern has so far shown no appetite to throw Twyford to the wolves – though she would probably win just as much kudos from inside the party as out if she did so.

But she needs to deliver a Cabinet that can do the business and not squander the opportunity her Government has been handed. Voters will expect nothing less. And the bar is high thanks to the scale of Labour’s victory.

So expect to see more of the iron fist in Ardern’s velvet glove in the coming weeks.

So the deal offered the Greens was mostly a gesture to show Labour was still operating in the spirit of MMP, even though in reality it doesn’t need them and the deal reflected that.