Delay in Covid vaccine
Is this the year the country falls out of love with Jacinda Ardern? Under her leadership, the Labour Party now commands the first outright parliamentary majority in a quarter-century. It was a reward for her leadership throughout the pandemic, sealing the country off from the rest of the world and largely stamping out Covid-19.
And we’ve been reaping the rewards this summer, while much of the northern hemisphere endures another grim winter lockdown. It’s easy to be grateful as the global death toll climbs and climbs.
But still, there is no escaping the irony. Labour won a historic victory despite little progress on the core of the policy agenda it promised in 2017.
And the structural problems the Government pledged to fix are arguably much worse because of the pandemic.
In some instances, the Ardern administration’s response has exacerbated problems that have been perpetuated since the 1990s, such as wealth inequality, constraints on home building and house price inflation.
It is too early in the term for unease. Ardern’s approval ratings are still unparalleled, the economy has weathered better than expected, and we remain sealed in our hermetic Covid-free bubble.
But even if we can keep Covid out, the new year is shaping up to be as turbulent and arduous as 2020.
Affordable homes will continue to slip from the grasp of younger generations as wages fail to keep up with the cost of living. House prices have risen 77 per cent over the past decade, the average household income by only 34 per cent. The wait for public housing is now longer than ever.
The Government seems to lack the ideological keel to force a reset. In December, Ardern admitted her Government could never really
improve housing affordability by forcing or allowing price falls because of voter expectations that their assets would be protected.
Younger employees are also more vulnerable to the pandemic’s economic fallout. There is a danger that the contraction of tourism and education sectors and congestion in supply chains will become more acute if new strains, and more border slip-ups, force the country back into lockdown.
As frustration grows among younger voters handicapped by these economic obstacles, an unfettered property boom into 2021 could become a tipping point.
But the biggest risk of all for the Government lies in the health system, which is very sick and showing obvious symptoms.
It can barely cope with an ageing population and soaring mental illness rates. Patients in Southland, Northland and on the West Coast are struggling to access GPs.
Our cancer rates are among the highest in the world, and access to new and proven medicines lags behind other countries.
The waiting lists for psychiatric care and counselling are cruelly long. And the country is in the midst of a dental care crisis.
Throw in a global pandemic and the need for a nationwide vaccination programme, and it is small wonder New Zealand’s immunisation campaign is proceeding at a painfully slow pace.
Much of the developed world (with larger populations) has already begun to administer vaccines to frontline workers and the vulnerable, while New Zealand is yet to even approve the inoculation.
Over the holiday period, the Government’s messaging on the rollout has been confused and inconsistent. Whereas we were at the front of the international queue for doses in November, Covid Recovery Minister Chris Hipkins now says citizens must wait our turn and the vaccine won’t arrive at these shores until March.
A few weeks ago, it was stated that the general public won’t start getting jabs until September, an inexplicably long wait given ministers and officials have had months to prepare. Now Hipkins says it is midyear.
Ardern’s leadership is now indelibly tied to Covid-19. That’s a blessing: while the virus rages around the rest of the world, the public will continue to be indebted to her for keeping them safe.
But it’s also a curse. If the Government fails to implement a swift and effective immunisation programme, leaving New Zealand closed off as other populations start to return to some form of normality, voters will very quickly lose patience.
Gratitude at Ardern’s measures to keep Covid out will easily be replaced with irritation at the restrictions keeping Kiwis locked in.
The biggest risk of all for the Government lies in the health system, which is very sick and showing obvious symptoms.