TOMORROW LAND
What will New Zealand look like when today’s 18-year-olds are reaching middle age? Daniel Smith finds optimism among the looming challenges.
As a fairly rough looking 26-year-old, whose veneer of youthful glow has faded into a wrinkled mask of cynicism, I look at young people with envy. They are beautiful and clever, with the bright shining eyes that comes with having a worldview yet to be jaded and twisted by the cruelty of life.
But despite my personal jealousy, it is hard to not be impressed by the younger generation.
This is a generation that organised the Schools Strike for Climate, convinced the Government to propose lowering the voting age to 16, and somehow managed to make filming yourself dancing cool on TikTok.
But it is probably a good thing the youth of today have shown themselves to be tenacious, smart and driven towards change. Because by god they have been left with a shitstorm coming down the pipeline.
If climate change continues on its current course, future New Zealand will look pretty bleak.
Days of extreme fire danger will increase 70% by 2040, rising sea levels will make large swathes of coastal regions uninhabitable, and the heat will mean our larger birds such as kiwi and whio will no longer have a place to live, according to the report
Our atmosphere and climate 2020 from the Ministry for the Environment.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the looming spectre of artificial intelligence is threatening to take between 25%-45% of current jobs performed by humans over the next two decades, and the concentration of wealth continues to trickle from the many to the few over the coming decades. The wealthiest fifth of New Zealand 30-somethings already hold 70% of the assets of their age cohort and they are more likely to inherit, meaning the intergenerational inequality gap is set to widen.
From this perspective, the future is not looking too bright. But instead of giving up, many young people are looking towards the future with hope.
One of these is 20-year-old Richa Sharma, national organising manager at climate activist group 350 Aotearoa.
Sharma has been an activist in the climate, LGBTQI+, and anti-fascism movements since she was 16. She says the reason younger generations push hard for change is that “young people don’t want to perish in the fires of climate collapse”.
While Sharma acknowledges there are difficult times ahead for her generation, she also sees a future with positive changes in New Zealand.
Future New Zealand is going to be a much more culturally diverse country. Berl data shows that by 2043 our population will be 26% Asian, 21% Māori and 11% Pasifika. While Pākehā will retain by far the largest percentage of the population, its share will drop from 70% to 64%.
These changes to population will increase the diversity in our society, and potentially promote a more inclusive idea of what being a New Zealander means, says Sharma.
“‘Kiwiness’ at the moment is very bound up in this view of traditional New Zealand, mostly Pākehā identity. I think in the future we might see a view of New Zealand that is more embracing of other cultures.” The other major societal shift on the cards is what will happen politically when today’s young people find themselves in positions of power, she says.
“As young people move from being disenfranchised youth, to holding positions of power we should start to see more empathetic leadership that focuses on planet, and people,” she says.
Sophie Handford, organiser of the inaugural School Strike for Climate and one of the country’s youngest councillors, is a living example of this.
The 22-year-old Kāpiti Coast District councillor says that when her generation looks at the issues coming their way they see not doom and gloom but an opportunity to create a better world.
“We are totally prepared, because we have to be, there is no other choice. If we let this moment slip by we run the risk of having missed the moment to address climate change and safeguard the planet for the generations that follow us,” says Handford.
And while action to curb climate change is crucial, the solutions to the problems may build a better world than the one we currently occupy, she said.
If we let this moment slip by we run the risk of having missed the moment to address climate change and safeguard the planet for the generations that follow us.
SOPHIE HANDFORD
“Climate action will have other social, cultural and economic benefits. In our mission to curb carbon emissions we may see things like free public transport, the building of 15-minute neighbourhoods, circular waste systems and increased public art.”
Out of a right old mess caused by decades of climate inaction, positive change can occur, if we can rise above division-based politics, she says.
“We need to break out of our individual silos and create a shared path of mahi based on those things that matter to all of us, a safe, healthy earth.”
Dr Zoë Port, management lecturer at Massey University said the issues facing middle-aged workers in the 2050s are going to be far more intense than the issues of today.
For one thing, studies have shown that rising temperatures impact worker wellbeing and performance.
While this will most severely impact labourers, fruit pickers and other outdoor based roles, the rising heat will impact just about every person that works.
“As the temperature rises we unfortunately are going to have to consider how we keep productive as the world is on fire,” Port says.
But the climate is not the only thing bearing down on the workforce of the future. The continued development of AI technology has the potential to disrupt the New Zealand workforce.
Studies estimate that in the next two decades between 25% and 45% of the jobs currently done by humans will be done by machines.
This will likely be a major issue in the lives of today’s youth, who will be in the prime of their working life when these changes occur.
Most likely the impact of AI will be to augment or aid in existing jobs, but there are risks of out and out replacement, Port says.
“Without getting all Terminator, the biggest risk we face is what happens to the workers that are displaced by AI. That needs to be a concern for our society,” Port says.
But the high levels of adaptation young people will develop could end up strengthening this age group, she says.
The kids that grew up missing school and university because of Covid-19, and watched a man made climate crisis worsen every night on the TV news will be far tougher than many older generations.
“The next generation will have seen a crazy amount of stuff by the time they are 30. It will definitely make them more adaptable and ready to face the challenges of the future,” Port says.