Mideast deal a boost for China as American influence falters
Iran and Saudi Arabia’s agreement to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after seven years of tensions represents a major diplomatic victory for China, as Gulf Arab states perceive the United States slowly withdrawing from the wider Middle East.
The major diplomatic breakthrough, negotiated with China, lowers the chance of armed conflict between the Mideast rivals – both directly, and in proxy conflicts around the region. It also comes as diplomats have been trying to end the long war in Yemen, in which Iran and Saudi Arabia are deeply entrenched.
A joint statement calls for the renewal of ties and the embassy reopenings to happen ‘‘within a maximum period of two months’’. A meeting between their foreign ministers is also planned.
‘‘Both sides have displayed sincerity,’’ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. ‘‘China fully supports this agreement.’’
The United Nations welcomed the rapprochement, and thanked China for its role. ‘‘Good neighbourly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are essential for the stability of the Gulf region,’’ UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said.
China, which last month hosted Iran’s hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, is also a top purchaser of Saudi oil. Xi visited Riyadh in December for meetings with oil-rich Gulf Arab nations that are crucial to China’s energy supplies.
Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed alAiban also thanked Iraq and Oman for mediating between Iran and the kingdom.
Tensions long have been high between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The kingdom broke ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters invaded Saudi diplomatic posts there. Saudi Arabia had executed a prominent Shiite cleric with 46 others just days earlier, triggering the demonstrations.
The split came as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began his rise to power. He had previously compared Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Adolf Hitler, and threatened to attack Iran.
Then the US unilaterally withdrew from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2018. Iran has been blamed for a series of attacks since then, including one targeting the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry in 2019, temporarily halving the kingdom’s crude production.
Religion also plays a key role in their relations. Saudi Arabia, home to Islam’s holy city of Mecca, has portrayed itself as the world’s leading Sunni Muslim nation. Iran’s theocracy, meanwhile, views itself as the protector of Islam’s Shiite Muslim minority.
The two powerhouses have competing interests elsewhere, such as in the turmoil in Lebanon, and in the rebuilding of Iraq following the US-led 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
The leader of the Iranianbacked Lebanese militia and political group Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said the agreement could ‘‘open new horizons’’ in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Iraq, Oman and the United Arab Emirates also praised the accord.
Yemeni rebel spokesman Mohamed Abdulsalam appeared to welcome the deal. ‘‘The region needs the return of normal relations between its countries, through which the Islamic society can regain its lost security as a result of the foreign interventions, led by the Zionists and Americans,’’ he said.
Top Pakistani diplomat Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, chair of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s Council of Foreign Ministers, praised China for ‘‘encouraging dispute resolution, rather than on encouraging perpetual disputes’’.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute who has long studied the region, said the deal came after the United Arab Emirates had reached a similar understanding with Tehran.
‘‘This dialling down of tensions and de-escalation has been under way for three years, and this was triggered by Saudi acknowledgement in their view that without unconditional US backing, they were unable to project power vis-a-vis Iran and the rest of the region.’’
Prince Mohammed, now focused on massive construction projects at home, probably wanted to finally pull out of the Yemen war as well, Ulrichsen added. ‘‘Instability could do a lot of damage to his plans.’’
It remains unclear what the deal means for the US. Though long viewed as guaranteeing Mideast energy security, regional leaders have grown increasingly wary of Washington’s intentions after its chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The White House has bristled at the notion that the Saudi-Iran agreement suggests a rise of Chinese influence in the Mideast, however.
‘‘I would stridently push back on this idea that we’re stepping back in the Middle East – far from it,’’ National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. ‘‘It really does remain to be seen whether the Iranians are going to honour their side of the deal.’’