Changing climate a mix-bag

The onset of climate change in Taranaki could provide a mixed bag of both benefits and drawbacks, a new report predicts.

Warmer climates could provide a longer crop season with fewer frosts, and health-wise there would likely be less cold related illnesses.

However, a predicted 0.7 to 1.1 degree increase in temperature by 2040 could bring in more pests and weeds as well as a possible increase in sub-tropical related diseases.

The climate projections were presented at a policy and planning meeting of the Taranaki Regional Council yesterday and were based on simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change combined with simulations from a Niwa supercomputer.

However, as well as pests, weeds and sub-tropical illnesses potentially on the 20-year horizon; erosion, landslides, flooding and droughts could all become more frequent.

A five to nine per cent increase in winter rainfall could also be on the cards as well as the possible loss of alpine herb fields on the Pouakai ranges.

Councillors at yesterday’s meeting remained optimistic about the changes in climate, with councillor Peter Horton joking the region would at least be able to grow grapes to make Savignon Blanc.

However, the tone changed when the chair Neil Walker asked what the regional council could do to prevent the changes.

‘‘The way the Resource Management Act is framed climate change is not our domain to get involved in,’’ council director for environment quality Gary Bedford said.

‘‘We are limited with what we can do as a council.’’

Director of resource management Fred McLay said the council’s primary role was dealing with the effects of climate change rather than preventing it. ‘‘It’s a central government issue to deal with the cause by managing things like emissions,’’ he said.

‘‘Our primary role is managing the effects, like if someone wants to build a house on eroding shoreline we manage their resource consent.’’

Councillor Walker said although managing the cause was the domain of central government the regional council could still express its view on government policy.

‘‘I hope we don’t just limit our thinking,’’ he said.

‘‘As the most important environmental issue we’re facing it’s something we could at least build up a bit of knowledge about.’’

Walker then said the council didn’t need to be entirely pessimistic about climate change as it could open up a raft of opportunities, particularly in agriculture.

According to the council report into Taranaki’s future climate, farmers could benefit from faster pasture growth and better crop growing conditions.

However, the crop benefits could be offset by prolonged droughts, competition for water resources and a greater frequency of storms.

By 2090 the sea level along the Taranaki coastline is predicted to rise by 1.7 metres, a rise which council policy analyst Denise Young said would not be a huge factor due to a limited amount of low lying areas in Taranaki.

Young said erosion was a much bigger issue.