Nats sweat over polls closing up

In Thursday night’s TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll, Labour’s 37 per cent was their best result on that poll since they became the Opposition party in 2008.

It was also the equal worst result for National and the worst for the Greens in Colmar Brunton in that time.

National has polled solidly between the mid-40s and early-50s throughout their nine years in Government. Even at the low end of that range they can govern again with support from NZ First.

For the Greens it’s a return to flirting with the 5 per cent threshold, a situation they haven’t been in for the best part of a decade. They have become accustomed to poll results in double figures. On Stuff’s Poll of Polls, which aggregates all the public polls, Labour is up almost 5 points to 34 per cent, while the Greens nosedive to 8 per cent.

By design, the poll of polls doesn’t over-react to a single poll. Even so, the impact of this poll on the average is stark.

It still incorporates a Roy Morgan poll which came out before the Labour and Green Party leadership changes.

A new Roy Morgan poll expected imminently.

Labour’s surge appears to have come almost entirely at the expense of the Greens.

Combined Labour-Green share of support in the polls hasn’t wavered since the last election: Never below about 38 per cent and never above 42 per cent.

Despite the drastic changes in is the latest poll, their combined support hasn’t moved.

On the Colmar Brunton numbers it sits at 41 per cent, up 2 per cent on that company’s previous poll which had Labour on 24 per cent and the Greens on 15 per cent. And in the poll of polls, combined support is 42 per cent, unchanged from the last update a week ago.

The swing from the Greens to Labour matters for those parties – Labour would have a lot more MPs if this poll were an election and they look like a more viable main party in a coalition government, while the Greens could be out of Parliament.

But they don’t appear to be growing support for the Left, which is what they need to do to have the best chance of forming the next government.

Too much success at the expense of the Greens could be fatal to Labour’s chances of being in the next government, if the Greens fail to win 5 per cent of the vote. On the other hand, a LabourNZ First Government becomes a more distinct possibility.

In a scenario where Labour wins the Ohariu seat from UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne (effectively kicking that party out of Parliament), Labour (48) and NZ First (13) would have enough votes for a one-seat majority in a 121-seat Parliament. The Greens would of course, be out of Parliament.

If Dunne was to win Ohariu, then National would be able to build a one-seat majority with the support of ACT (1), UnitedFuture (1) and the Maori Party (3).

This is another poll that shows the election on a knife-edge.