Road v rail not just Nats v Labour
At face value, two policy announcements from the main political parties in recent days demonstrate a difference between how they see New Zealand’s transport future.
Labour has picked up an idea favoured by the transport lobby group Greater Auckland and the Green Party. It is pledging support for passenger rail services between Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga. National, meanwhile, is promising to build more roads. The difference seems obvious. Labour says responding to climate change is ‘‘this generation’s nuclear-free moment’’, so supporting ways to get people out of cars and onto public transport fits well within that narrative. Meanwhile, National is focused on economic development, and their message is that improving infrastructure will feed economic growth, and thus jobs and prosperity.
But the contrast is simplistic. Labour would also build more roads if elected. All governments do. Meanwhile, while National doesn’t have a headline-grabbing grand plan on rail, it has pledged $267m towards new tracks and electrification in Auckland and Wellington.
As far as roads go, the assumption that new ones go against the imperative need to combat climate change is so last century. Electric vehicles will replace carbon-emitting internal combustion engines over the next few decades. They will still need roads. Rather, future governments of any political hue will need to face up to complex transport challenges. New Zealand is growing faster than we realise. Our population passed 4 million only in 2003, but now stands at 4.8m. Tourism will increase to 4.5m visitors a year in the next five years, representing a 50 per cent increase since 2012. All those people need to move around.
The amount of freight being moved is predicted to hit 370m tonnes a year in the next 25 years. For every two trucks you see on the road today, expect three.
This explains why roads that can be driven at 100km and are not too congested today have been marked for major upgrades in National’s plan for 10 new ‘‘roads of national significance’’ – for instance the highways between Christchurch and Ashburton, and between Otaki and Sanson.
Both run through or close to areas of strong forecast growth, and both are effectively extensions of existing major roading projects – the Christchurch Southern Motorway, and the Wellington Northern Corridor and Kapiti Expressway. But both also traverse areas which are well serviced with railways – in the Christchurch-Ashburton case, the tracks run alongside the road. So, shifting passengers and especially freight from road to rail would seem to make sense. But there are factors which make that unlikely, at least in the short to medium term.
The present Government generally favours road over rail, and doesn’t like subsidies. Even the proposed passenger rail plan for Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga, serving a combined population of 1.8 million people, will need subsidies to make it work. Road user charges – which effectively levy at tax for every kilometre driven – incentivise continued government support for road transport. Public servants planning long-term policy are tasked to focus on land transport to the disadvantage of alternatives such as coastal shipping or air freight.
Pre-election party political announcements may seem significant, but they are only a small part of a much bigger picture of future transport needs.
Fairfax NZ