Leaked report reveals $19b risk
In the midst of an election campaign focused as ever on the short term, it is good to be reminded of what is really at stake and to think ahead decades rather than years. And it gets no bigger or more important than the survival of human life on Earth.
While the southern United States was hit by one tropical storm or hurricane after another that threatened rain and wind speed records and showed us unimaginable scenes of the fourthlargest US city underwater, a third of Bangladesh was in a similar state following South Asian floods that killed at least 1200 people. Closer to home, Edgecumbe flooded in April after it was drenched in the after-effect of Cyclone Debbie. New Plymouth and other parts of Taranaki have taken recent hits.
One thing has become clear to us in 2017. This will continue to be the disaster of the 21st century. The cover of the latest issue of The Economist says it all in just one word over a photo from Texas: ‘‘Floods.’’
An alarming report on flooding and coastal erosion in New Zealand must be seen in this context. Commissioned by the Ministry for the Environment, the report was delivered in April but only became publicly available when it was leaked this week by Green Party leader James Shaw.
Those with suspicious minds might assume that the Government wanted to keep this report on the disastrous impact of climate change away from the scrutiny of an election campaign. Shaw argued that the Ministry for the Environment report needs to be seen now so that families and businesses can prepare. We have a worsening disaster ahead of us and, unlike earthquakes, we can see this one coming. The report says that a modest sea level rise of about 30 to 40cm would lead to ‘‘present day, rare storm-tide inundation events’’ hitting New Zealand once a year on average. This could happen as soon as 2050.
The report was intended to update the ministry’s coastal hazard guidance that is now almost 10 years old. It says that ‘‘planning for adaptation at the coast needs to start now’’. A risk census found that $19 billion of property is threatened by increased flooding and coastal erosion. The ‘‘higher levels of coastal risk exposure’’ will affect more than 43,000 homes, 133,000 people, five airports, more than 2000 kilometres of road and 46km of railway. The disaster response will fall to councils, many of which have urged the Government to be more prepared for the impact of climate change as the problem is too big for them to manage.
But this Government has so far been reluctant to do so. Then Finance Minister Bill English rejected Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Dr Jan Wright’s recommendation in 2015 that a working group should prepare for the costs of sea level rise. A problem of this scale can not cope with any more political dithering.
- Stuff