They’ve got two chances: slim and none

As things stand, the All Whites won’t be going to next year’s World Cup. That’s not to belittle the players, who believe firmly that they can get there, and who will give their all in November as they try to, but that’s how it looks from the sideline, and it’s not really their fault.

It’s mostly bad luck, that when the draw was made in July 2015, Oceania got stuck with the fifth-best team from South America (Conmebol), not the fifth-best team from Asia, or the fourth-best team from North and Central America (Concacaf) .

If the 32 countries at the World Cup were decided solely by Fifa’s rankings, the fifth-best team from Conmebol would make it (Peru, 15th); but the fifth-best from Asia (Saudi Arabia, 59th) and the fourth-best from Concacaf (Haiti, 55th) wouldn’t be close, and that could be all the difference.

In the past four cycles, Uruguay finished fifth in Conmebol and had to play off, but still made the 2002, 2010, and 2014 events. When they missed out in 2006, it was to Australia’s golden generation, on penalties.

The current crop of All Whites are not (yet) a golden generation, and that’s what it would take to upset Peru, or Chile, or Argentina, the three most likely opponents. Perhaps they will reveal themselves to be one over the next nine weeks, but that would be one hell of a final twist.

Watching some of the recent international action, such as Australia’s matches against Japan and Thailand, or Argentina’s against Uruguay and Venezuela, and comparing them to the All Whites at the Confederations Cup in June, the only possible conclusion was that the Kiwis are a long way off.

The case for them improving consists of three things – that they weren’t actually that far away, that they weren’t as fit as they could be, and that they were missing Winston Reid.

The return of Reid might make the biggest difference. His presence would give the entire defence a lift, and he would cover for his partners and make their faults less obvious.

As for fitness, well, it is true that players are fresher in November than in June. But will that suddenly help them press as a cohesive unit? It’s not as if they were run off their feet in Russia.

Finally, there’s the idea that the All Whites are close already, driven by the coach’s fanciful belief, restated just last week, that they were ‘‘the more dominant team’’ when they lost 2-1 to Mexico in June.

In the first half, the All Whites had six shots to Mexico’s five, and three on target to their one, and deserved to lead 1-0.

But in the second half, they had four to Mexico’s 17, and one on target to their nine.

They were dominated far more than they were dominant, and if that is the performance that is meant to give the country hope, then it is only fair to say that there is none.