Possible party alliances for NZ’s 52nd government

After a campaign that had New Zealanders on the edge of their seats, the results are in – but we are hardly any closer to knowing who will make up the 52nd Government.

National came out on top with

46 per cent of the vote and 58 seats. Meanwhile, Labour finished with

35.8 per cent of the party vote and

45 seats.

A total of 2,179,668 votes were counted on Saturday, and a further

384,072 special votes are expected to be counted. Voter turnout is estimated to be 78.8 per cent, compared with a final 77.9 per cent turnout of those enrolled in 2014.

A total of 61 votes in the 120-seat Parliament are needed to form a government.

That means neither major party can be sure of a majority alone based on the results so far.

Under MMP, the party leader who can command a majority in Parliament gets to govern. These results have thrown up a few different options:

National + NZ First: Winston Peters’ party won nine seats. So with National’s 58, that takes them across the line to 67 seats.

NZ First has worked with National before and while there are some National policies Peters does not agree with, that does not mean he won’t agree to form a coalition.

Peters hasn’t pulled any punches when attacking Bill English’s National Government. However, he was also highly critical of Jim Bolger in 1996, before joining National in a coalition with the roles of deputy prime minister and treasurer.

ACT’s David Seymour could be part of a coalition with National but it is likely ACT will be frozen out, but will almost certainly back National anyway on key confidence and supply votes.

Peters and Seymour have said they won’t work together. However, ACT won’t work with Labour.

Labour + NZ First + the Green Party: Labour could not form a majority government with its ideal coalition with the Green Party. Together they have 52 seats.

But with the help of NZ First, they could just make it with 61 seats.

National + the Green Party: With 58 and seven seats respectively, National and the Greens could technically form a coalition government.

Greens leader James Shaw has campaigned for a change of government throughout 2017, and the two parties’ environmental policies do not line up.

But Shaw said that if English called, the Green Party would be ‘‘duty-bound to listen to what he has to say’’.

In order for the Greens to go with National, English’s offer would have to be pretty good, Shaw said.

Labour + NZ FIrst (supported by the Greens): Labour and NZ First could potentially form a minority government with the support of the Green Party. In this scenario the Green Party wouldn’t be part of an official coalition but they would work with the government, and help stop Opposition parties toppling them with a motion of no confidence.

National: If neither National or Labour can form a majority coalition government, National could govern alone as a minority.

However, Peters, or others, could call for a vote of no confidence and topple the government.

National + Labour: It is technically possible.

When two major parties form a government, it is referred to as a grand coalition.

The approach has been used in modern Germany and twice in times of crisis in New Zealand – once during World War I and once during the Great Depression.