What the All Whites must show
Since Anthony Hudson took charge of the All Whites three years ago, we’ve been told that they’ll be ready for the challenge this November, where a home-and-away tie against a South American team stands between them and next year’s World Cup.
It has been the fallback position in recent times, when performances and results have come up short of the team’s own expectations, but it is a plea for fans to have faith in something they have not yet seen - a team capable of beating the world’s best.
Come 1am on Saturday (NZ time), we will have seen all that we are going to of this crop of All Whites, prior to November - 25 games with Hudson in the dugout, and with Chris Wood, Michael McGlinchey, Ryan Thomas and Winston Reid leading the way on the pitch.
There will be two big variables left for the team after that - the identity of their November opponent, which will be revealed shortly after 2pm next Wednesday, and whether any of them suffer injuries over the next month - but as far as their own game is concerned, there will be little room for change.
So far, there has been nothing to suggest they are capable of beating Argentina, Chile, or Peru - their likely opponents - over two legs - a task that would have been difficult even for a golden generation of talent performing at their peak on a consistent basis, which this is not.
This is football, however, where fortunes can change quickly. Having failed to make any sort of progress at the Confederations Cup in June, the All Whites have been left to rely on a simple onetwo punch - make the most of their match in this window, and hope it leaves them in a good place heading into the home leg of the intercontinental playoff, five weeks from now.
As we watch Friday’s match, which kicks off at 11.20pm, there are a few things we should keep an eye on.
The first of which is the impact of the captain, Winston Reid. He hasn’t played for the national team for almost a year, but the last time he did was the last time they exceeded expectations - in friendlies against Mexico (a 2-1 loss) and the United States (a 1-1 draw).
Reid is easily the country’s best player, even if Chris Wood and Ryan Thomas are making big gains, and he helps hide the flaws of his fellow defenders. The All Whites’ defence has been a worry this year, even against the Solomon Islands, let alone bigger countries, but if it looks better with Reid back at its heart, that will be a reason to feel better about November.
The second is whether they can get their pressing game going. Hopefully they know where they left it, because it was barely seen at the Confederations Cup and in the friendlies beforehand, bar for that one half against Mexico.
A desire to press the opposition high up the pitch has been at the heart of everything Hudson has done with this team, but it has only truly come to fruition on a few occasions - the 1-0 loss to South Korea in 2015, the aforementioned friendlies last year, and the first half of the Mexico game in June (which ended up a 2-1 loss).
Getting a team pressing well takes time, and as a result, it’s a strategy more commonly found at club level, where players train week-in, week-out, but Hudson has pledged to make it this team’s thing, and we need to see it in full flight this Friday.
The third concerns who plays. Hudson said at his press conference in Auckland last week that ‘‘bar one or two’’ he settled on his starting XI for the intercontinental playoff a year ago, and Friday night’s lineup should be a preview of November’s.
Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, there are seven names you can all but lock in, from back to front - Stefan Marinovic, Michael Boxall, Reid, McGlinchey, Thomas, Marco Rojas, and Wood.
Deklan Wynne would be the eighth, but in Tom Doyle, he has a challenger the others do not. Kip Colvey is probably the ninth, especially now that Storm Roux has missed this window with a back injury, but when you consider that Dane Ingham somehow got the nod over him twice in June, it’s best to leave his name in pencil too.
Then come the final two slots. The third centre back is one, and it will likely be Tommy Smith in November, should he recover from his hamstring injury in time. If he doesn’t, step forward one of Andrew Durante, Themi Tzimopoulos or Sam Brotherton (likely in that order - we will get a pointer on Friday).
The other is either a midfielder or a striker, depending where Rojas is deployed. If he plays in midfield, as he did against Russia at the Confederations Cup, then Kosta Barbarouses likely comes in up top - Monty Patterson, Myer Bevan and Shane Smeltz are the other options. If he plays up top alongside Wood, as he did against Mexico and Portugal, then it opens the door for Bill Tuiloma, Clayton Lewis (absent this week), Moses Dyer, or James Musa.
On the evidence from June, Lewis would have been the obvious pick, but that was before his fitness issues left him on the outer last time around. He was not considered for this match, as it clashed with his arrival at Scunthorpe United in England, and Hudson was cool on whether he would be certain to return in November, saying last week: ‘‘This time last year we were heavily reliant on Clayton Lewis. Now we’ve got a squad’’.
With Lewis not in Japan, Barbarouses up top and Rojas in midfield would seem to be the most likely approach on Friday, though we will only know for sure when the team is named.
The other area where we are left guessing, for now, is with regard to Japan’s approach. Will they use their normal system and a first-choice lineup, and look to play at full throttle, beginning their preparations for the World Cup in earnest, now that qualification is secure? Or will they look to experiment, and give their wider squad a run?
The two teams last played in March 2014, when Japan were preparing for that year’s World Cup, and they did the former. As far as the All Whites are concerned, they will hope it’s the same here. Reid and co need to be pushed as hard as possible, so that they know exactly where they stand, with November just around the corner.