Hartley in for high stakes debut
New Zealand driver Brendon Hartley can expect a fast-paced Formula One debut this weekend as he lines up in a race with the year’s championship title at stake.
Championship leader Lewis Hamilton could be crowned Britain’s first four-times F1 world champ this weekend at the US Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. His team, Mercedes, is also on the brink of a fourth consecutive constructor’s title.
The chances of Mercedes, 145 points clear of Ferrari with four races remaining, wrapping things up in Austin in the constructor’s championship appear to be overwhelming.
Everything is also stacking up for Hamilton to become only the fifth driver to win more than three championships since the first in
1950, with British bookmakers offering odds of 1:50 on him taking the title. That compares to 14:1 for Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel, Hamilton’s closest rival, and 300:1 on Mercedes’ other driver, Valtteri Bottas.
While Mercedes may be celebrating after the race, Hamilton may find he has to wait and try again at the Mexican Grand Prix the following weekend.
Hamilton enjoys a hefty
59-point advantage, with 100 points still to be won. He must score 16 more than his German rival this weekend to prevent the title battle continuing to Mexico City.
Third place is worth 15 points and will not be enough for Hamilton. Even if the Briton wins in Austin, he will be champion only if Vettel finishes no higher than sixth. If the Briton comes second, then Vettel has to finish eighth or higher to stay in the game.
Hartley is making his F1 debut at the US Grand Prix in a drive for Toro Rosso, who are placed sixth in the constructors’ championship. The team has endured several driver changes this year with their best result coming in Singapore, a fourth place with Carlos Sainz Jr at the wheel.
Reliability, or lack of it, will be a key concern for both Mercedes and Ferrari. Vettel has failed to finish two of the last three races in Asia, one due to a first lap collision and the other a spark plug problem, and cannot afford any further unreliability on Ferrari’s part.
However, before his nightmare run the German had not finished lower than seventh since Malaysia in October 2016, when he retired with damaged suspension after a collision. He was fourth in Austin last year, when Mercedes had a one-two finish.
This year Vettel has finished all but six races on the podium and three of those outside the top three were fourth places.
Hamilton has won eight times and finished second three times in 16 races. Austin has also been particularly
good to him with four wins in five years including the last three. Vettel won with Red Bull in 2013.
Even if Mercedes dominate onetwo, and Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen prove to be the closest rivals, the chances are that Vettel will still finish in the top five in a race without incident.
In the constructors’ championship, Ferrari need to outscore Mercedes by 17 points to prevent them retaining the title in Austin.
The only occasion Ferrari have done that this season was in Monaco in May when Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen finished one-two while Hamilton was seventh and team mate Valtteri Bottas ended up fourth.