Cheer up, Bill, you lost

In the lead-up to Thursday’s dramatic reveal, much was made of a possible sly wink from Labour leader Jacinda Ardern.

Some commentators, driven to distraction by finding little in the tea leaves, were now examining the nuances of body language and involuntary tics in a desperate attempt to learn something . . . anything, about who would be king or queen.

Had those students of biomechanics been observing the vanquished Bill English a little later on, they might have picked up another subconscious slip maybe a slight release of tightness in the shoulders or subtle sigh of relief.

English lost despite running the campaign of his political career and garnering the most votes. So it makes sense that he would, at first, be bitterly disappointed at being abandoned at the altar, his labours having led to nought.

But time, we are told, heals all wounds.

In time, English and the National Party may realise that sometimes there is victory in coming second, especially when the main prize is a prickly septuagenarian with a penchant for taking his toys and heading elsewhere.

Sources suggest some National Party members were thinking along such lines, that history beckoned but the predicted histrionics made the price too high.

There is a good argument in that line of logic. Had Peters given his own wink to the right, National would have had its fourth term, but any fallout would have been particularly messy, potentially condemning both to a pounding in the polls the next time round and a long time in opposition.

The pressure is now definitely on Ardern to marry her unrelenting positivity to a ruthless political pragmatism as she strives to keep the coalition in place while managing the ambitions of her fellow MPs.

If she makes it work Ardern can lay the foundations of a legacy Labour government over multiple terms. Labour could further secure its hold on the cities while Peters and Co lock in the regions.

However, pushing her all the way will be one of the biggest opposition blocs in the country’s history. It will have the numbers and the resources to pounce on any mistake, magnify any crack and cash in if the coalition creaks or collapses.

With the pressure now off, National has the opportunity to consider the magnitude of that shift and work out how it might best surf this generational wave.

Some commentators believe English should stay in the party’s top job for at least another year, giving his team plenty of time to find an able, possibly younger, successor to help establish a new legacy.

Whoever that might be will have the luxury of time and little pressure to grow into the role.

Ardern has little of either. Watch for those nervous tics. - Stuff