‘Grim’ outlook in latest NZ climate report
A final report by the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Advisory Group is expected in March.
Sea level rises of just centimetres could make some coastal communities intolerable, a climate scientist says.
Rob Bell, of the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (Niwa), sounded the warning while presenting a report that shows New Zealand does not have a co-ordinated plan to address the effects of climate change.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw said the report made ‘‘grim reading’’.
‘‘I don’t want to sugar coat this: there are significant risks to property and infrastructure. The whole point [of the report] is to get ahead of those risks so we can anticipate and avoid those risks. Forewarned is for forearmed’’.
New Zealand had ‘‘decades of urgent work’’ ahead to mitigate climate change’s damage, but despite the sobering report, Shaw was hopeful.
The report gave New Zealand a ‘‘head start’’ adapting to climate change compared with other countries, he said.
The report found ‘‘limited evidence’’ that New Zealand had been proactively adapting to the threat of climate change, and many sectors had been trying to adapt on their own within a mismatched framework of policies and legislation.
New Zealand had a lot of information about how the climate was changing but, ‘‘unlike many countries’’, did not have a coordinated plan.
The report’s authors ‘‘found no evidence that climate change risks to New Zealand have been reduced by the actions taken by central government’’.
Shaw released the stocktake report from the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Advisory Group, which was set up last year to advise the Government on climate vulnerability.
He also released long-delayed coastal hazards guidance for councils, a nearly 300-page document which details how local authorities should consider climate change decisions.
It wanted to ‘‘shift people from reacting to climate change events’’ and take a more ‘‘anticipatory approach’’, technical reference group leader, Victoria University climate scientist Judy Lawrence said.
New Zealand communities and public/private sectors needed to be able to take ‘‘dynamic action’’ toward climate change risks ‘‘over time’’.
Some councils were already ‘‘picking up on ideas’’ to adapt, Lawrence said.
Bell said it could be a matter of sea rises of only centimetres that could ‘‘tip-over’’ coastal communities.
‘‘It may become intolerable for them. You’ll know some of these [areas], parts of South Dunedin, Hawke’s Bay and Auckland, they’re priority areas.’’
‘‘A couple of decades down the track’’ some parts of the country might become ‘‘uninsurable’’ as in planning climate change effects filtered through to insurance premiums, Shaw warned.
Report delayed
The former government had not released the interim stocktake report when asked by Stuff, and said the final report would be publicly released in March. Stuff asked the new Government to release the interim report.
Shaw said the report had been ready since May 2017.
It shows New Zealand has significant information about climate change, but not all of it is in a form that is accessible or is used to aid decision making.
The Government had been reactive, not proactive, in adapting to climate change, and agencies had mismatched priorities.
‘‘The lack of a nationwide assessment of the climate-related risks means that it is difficult for New Zealand to develop a planned approach for climate change adaptation because priorities for action cannot yet be articulated,’’ it said.
A final report by the group is expected in March, and will contain recommendations for how New Zealand can adapt to climate change.
The effects
Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as flooding, drought and wildfires, the stocktake said.
The impacts are likely to accelerate and extend broadly across all sectors of society.
Climate change also posed a threat to low-lying infrastructure and communities. Most of New Zealand’s population is either coastal or on a floodplain.
A ‘‘risk census’’ of infrastructure by Niwa in 2015 found billions of dollars of infrastructure was in low lying areas that would be prone to flooding. They include nearly 70,000 buildings, 2000km of road, and five airports.
The area carrying the most risk is Christchurch, followed by Hawke’s Bay.