National’s big succession problem

Bill English has done his party a favour by standing down. But whether National can find a capable replacement for him is moot.

All of the possible leaders have striking flaws. The most plausible is Simon Bridges: he is youngish, ruthless, and embarrassed the Government early with a swift tactical triumph in Parliament. He might be able to appeal to centrist voters as well as the hard-right core of National.

But his ruthlessness and very Right-wing lean might put many people off. His rewriting of the law to stop offshore protests against the oil companies was slanted to commercial interests rather than democratic rights.

He has a certain blokeish appeal. But whether this proves a match for Jacinda Ardern, the huge political problem that National must somehow solve, remains most uncertain.

Judith Collins would appeal to the hard-Right core, and has the ‘‘mongrel’’ quality allegedly needed in opposition. But she will repel more voters than she attracts, and cannot harvest many votes in the centre.

Paula Bennett, the Westie with the heart of gold, has some crossover appeal, and is not identified with the hard Right. She has a toughness along with a liberalish side on social policy: everyone remembers ‘‘Zip it, sweetie’’. But her day in the sun is probably past. And the caucus seems to have turned against her.

Nikki Kaye has a genuinely moderate approach and is an appealing person. She lacks bite and political cut-through.

Amy Adams is favoured by some of the pundits. Her claimed competence can also seem like coldness; sometimes she looks like a politician who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. Her refusal to inflationproof the payout to Teina Pora on the grounds that it set a difficult precedent was heartless.

Neither Jonathan Coleman nor Steven Joyce has the ability to engage the voters, let alone excite them.

And here is the deeper problem for National. It seems to think it is merely an accidental opposition, that it was robbed of power by a whim of Winston Peters. It needs to realise that 44.5 per cent of the vote might be the largest portion gained by any party, but that doesn’t entitle it to power.

English was right to step down and offer his party the chance to take a new course. He has served his country faithfully for 27 years, and was both likeable and largely straightforward.

He was a capable finance minister and left a growing economy, although partly based on excessive and unsustainable immigration. His successful leadership in 2017 replaced the bad memories of 2002.