Six theories on who poisoned Skripal - and why

Vladimir Putin promised that traitors would die choking. Was that a tough-guy metaphor or a licence to kill? Six theories are circulating about the Sergei Skripal attack. So far, few have gone as far as to suggest that the Russian president actually ordered the poisoning.

Yet speculation is being fed by important questions about the methods and timing of the attack. How could the would-be killers get hold of the nerve agent without state support? And why was it staged 14 days before Putin’s expected re-election as Russian president?

1. Mouse on the doorstep

Putin’s outbursts on the subject of traitors are open to interpretation and fall into the King Henry II category: ‘‘Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?’’ His last public threat was in 2010. So who would have followed up on this to please the president? A clue lies in the 2015 shooting of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov by Chechens, including a bodyguard of the ruthless Putin loyalist, Ramzan Kadyrov. Like Skripal, the Russian dissident was targeted in a public place. Observers compared it to a cat dropping a dead mouse on the doorstep of its owner.

Probability rating: 3 out of 5

2. Stop the clock

Putin may be the political target. In 1984, secret police tortured to death a Polish Solidarity priest to stop the country’s military ruler making concessions to the West. There may be a fear in Moscow that Putin, once re-elected, will reshuffle the cliques around him, weaken the grip of the security lobby and seek a deal with the West on Ukraine. This attack could send relations into deep freeze and thwart Putin.

Probability: 3.5 out of 5

3. Horse’s head

Skripal betrayed GRU networks to MI6, yet he was sentenced to only 13 years’ imprisonment, suggesting that he co-operated with his Russian interrogators. As a result, he has made many enemies. Some may want to send a signal akin to the decapitation of a racehorse in The Godfather.

Probability: 2.5 out of 5

4. Dirty dossier

If Skripal was helping the consultancy firm of ex-MI6 officer Christopher Steele, then there will be official interest in silencing him. Skripal was convicted in Russia in 2006, the year Steele became head of the MI6 Russian desk. When Steele was hired a decade later to hunt for links between Donald Trump and Russia, he may have drawn on the skills of Skripal, among others.

Probability: 2 out of 5

5. The broker theory

Even if there is no Steele link, Skripal may have been trading intelligence, thus violating the terms of the spy swap. Unless he still had connections with the GRU, he is likely to be a long way from the great intelligence prize: the organisational structure of Russia’s cyberwarfare units.

Probability: 1 out of 5

6. The Russian manoeuvre

The Russian embassy in London, presumably guided from above, tweeted: ‘‘He was actually a British spy working for MI6.’’ This is an attempt to muddy the waters and set conspiracy theorists running after a false hare. Probability: 0 out of 5

– The Times