Fossil fuels burn hole in future
The risk of a few cold showers is a more attractive option than the option of runaway climate change.
In the August 25 Taranaki Daily
News the article ‘‘Cold showers could be coming our way’’ makes the case for reversal of recent Government policies and actions which aim to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
The writer chooses to focus on the difficulty of transitioning from coal, oil and gas, rather than focusing on the absolute necessity to do so. This is despite the fact that reputable scientists are overwhelmingly saying that human civilisation is having a significant and potentially catastrophic effect on our climate.
The inconvenient truth is that if we do not abandon the use of fossil fuels, then the climate of the 22nd century will be much less accommodating of human civilisation. Sea levels will have risen alarmingly and our ability to feed billions of humans will have been severely reduced.
The option of continuing to burn fossil fuels will lead to more longterm problems, which can be substantially avoided or mitigated if we bite the bullet now, and choose a future free of fossil fuels.
There are three clear alternatives to our continued use of fossil fuels.
Firstly, there is wind power, which already contributes a useful percentage of our electricity supply. When the wind is not blowing we can rely on a higher intensity of hydro generation.
This means that additional generating capacity can be installed in existing hydro schemes in order to handle increased peak power demand, without increasing the total amount of hydro electricity generated. We need to greatly increase our wind power capacity.
Secondly, there is solar power, which at present is very little used. To some extent the generation of solar electric power will help cover periods when the wind power supply is low, and in general it will allow the hydro system capacity to be used less for base load generation, and more for peak loads, when wind and solar supply is very low.
Current market conditions offer inadequate incentives for people to install solar panels on existing and new houses, but current market conditions are not fixed and unchangeable. We need action which will foster the widespread use of solar power, action from both the Government and private sectors.
Thirdly, there is resource and energy conservation in the broadest sense. There will and must be a transition away from fossil fuels to electricity in the transport sector. The consequent increase in electricity demand can be reduced by various means, including reductions in private vehicle use and vehicle battery recharge at night, when electricity demand is low.
At worst, if we have adverse conditions of low wind, no sun and low hydro lakes, then we may need to interrupt or reduce electric power supply to some industries or areas. The risk of a few cold showers is a more attractive option than the option of runaway climate change due to the continued use of coal, oil and gas.
The underlying problem is that our current market-driven economies may not be able to be modified to suit a low-growth future without the use of fossil fuels. Nevertheless, it is essential that we transition away from fossil fuels.
As difficult as it may be to transition away from fossil fuels there is another, longer term, more difficult transition which humanity will need to go through. This is the transition to a fully sustainable society, a transition with multiple aspects and challenges.
Consider the human population, now approaching 8 billion. It took tens of thousands of years for our population to reach 1 billion in 1804 or thereabouts.
We reached 2 billion approximately 123 years later in 1927. Subsequent billions were reached after periods of 33, 14, 13, 12 and 12 years to reach a 7 billion population in 2011.
Estimates are that we will have a population in excess of 9 billion before 2050. The human population is out of control and growth in human numbers has caused severe impacts in our natural environment.
Virtually all the negative effects on the environment are significantly worsened not only by our agricultural, industrial and commercial activities, but by the huge growth in human numbers.
The problems of excessive growth are widespread and apply in many areas other than population. Eventually we will leave the Age of Growth and enter an Age of Reduction. It is likely to be a better outcome if we do this in a planned, considered way, rather than have it forced upon us by war, famine or disease.