The alarm is ringing, Simon
In the movie Groundhog Day, Bill Murray’s character must relive a single day, over and over, seemingly until he has learnt to recognise his shortcomings and rectify an arrogant, narcissistic personality. Fourteen months on, Simon Bridges and his National counterparts are still reliving that day, on October 7, 2017, when they won the popular vote but failed to form a government.
The latest polling appears to have confirmed their particular Groundhog Day: still immensely popular, despite the effects of Jami-Lee Ross and others; still the largest party in the House; still a powerful Opposition; still waking daily from the nightmare of watching Winston Peters oscillate between the Left and the Right.
The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll has National leading on 46 per cent support, with Labour slipping a few points to 43 per cent. It’s Groundhog Day with the preferred prime minister stakes as well, with Jacinda Ardern solid on 39 per cent, and Bridges and Judith Collins neck and neck on 6 and 7 per cent respectively.
This result no doubt has Bridges sleeping relatively soundly, and Labour too quite satisfied that it has maintained support despite some challenging issues and scraps within the coalition Government.
But there is a sense of uneasy stasis, of a working group of public opinion that has yet to reach a conclusion and report back.
Assuming this is an accurate, reliable poll – a number of commentators are treating it as something of an outlier running counter to the parties’ internal polling – then there are reasons for both sides to be concerned at the inability to move on and change the current dynamic of indifference.
Labour’s result suggests that Ardern remains its greatest communicator, and that her own popular personal narrative covers up an ongoing queasiness about the Government, a caution about its agenda and concerns about the stability of its three-legged stool.
In short, we haven’t quite made up our minds yet about whether it knows what it’s doing – on climate change, immigration, KiwiBuild, taxation, workplace relations and more.
National is doing a good job of reminding punters of the Government’s inexperience, but it too must have some concerns about the intransigence of the polls. Just maintaining such high levels of support into the new year will involve incredible levels of management and discipline; that will likely be a struggle if the leader’s anaemic support continues and a new election looms.
But possibly of greater concern is that the party remains trapped in its own Groundhog Day, entranced by its continued high level of support, convinced that it was ‘‘robbed’’ of an election win, and blind to what needs to be done in this now wellestablished MMP environment.
Its continuing success in the polls could be keeping it from acknowledging its greater failure: the need for friends beyond the voters.
Bill Murray’s character moved on only when he realised the insanity of doing the same things over and over and expecting different results. Bridges can sleep soundly for a little while longer, but the alarm is surely getting louder.
In short, we haven’t quite made up our minds yet about whether [the Government] knows what it’s doing – on climate change, immigration, KiwiBuild, taxation, workplace relations and more.