Another dangerous year

If the international community were to receive an assessment card, based on reports issued during 2018, it would look like this. In terms of conflict, according to the Global Peace Index, the level of peacefulness around the world has been declining since 2014. There have only been two years since 2008 when global peace improved. In 2018, 92 countries deteriorated, while only 71 improved. The amount of money spent on the military worldwide now sits at US$1.7 trillion, the equivalent of 2.2 per cent of global GDP, or $230 per person on the planet.

Where some progress has been recorded is with the decline in terrorism, of which it was reported by the United States State Department that the total number of terrorism attacks (8584) worldwide has decreased by 23 per cent since 2016 and total deaths (about 18,700, a quarter of whom were the perpetrators) due to attacks has dropped 27 per cent. The 2018 Global Terrorism Index concurs with the 27 per cent figure. The result is that the number of deaths globally from terrorism is 44 per cent lower than the peak in 2014.

This reduction is due to multiple factors. They include terror groups becoming degraded, and less able to perform sophisticated operations, and improved levels of security. The downward trend also reflects that the death rates in Iraq, Syria, Nigeria and Pakistan have all fallen. This change is not reflected in all regional studies. The death rate from terrorism in Europe has also fallen by more than 50 per cent compared to 2016, but the number of attempted attacks is about the same.

It is important to note that, although Islamic State, the Taliban, Boko Haram and Al Shabaab are still responsible for the majority of terrorrelated deaths globally, in some regions those who cause terror are changing. In Europe, in terms of people arrested (which has grown consistently since 2014), ethno-nationalist and separatist terrorist attacks (67 per cent of the total) outnumber attacks carried out by other types of violent extremists.

In economic terms, even if most citizens are pessimistic about the future, overall economic considerations in the present give rise to a mild optimism. The International Labour Organisation records that the global unemployment rate stabilised at 5.6 per cent in 2017. Supplementing this trend is a global economic growth rate of 3.7 per cent. So too, international trade figures are good, with projections for growth in 2019 (3.7 per cent) but the trade dispute between China and the US casts grey clouds, as does uncertainty over Brexit.

Less optimism is evident with civil liberties, with the 2018 Freedom in the World Index, which measures political rights around the world, recording them deteriorating to their lowest point in more than a decade. For the 12th consecutive year, countries that suffered democratic setbacks outnumbered those registering gains. A similar decline is evident in the 2018 Reporters Without Borders report, which recorded a growing hostility towards journalists. The worst cases now see regimes willing to assassinate their foremost critics, and even democratically elected leaders are starting to openly question the value of a free press.

The indices on specific social and health issues reflect some positive news, with tobacco consumption declining 7 per cent since 2000. The bad news is there are still about 1.1b smokers in the world, and their shared addiction will kill about 7m per year. With alcohol, the death rate is more than 3m a year, but unlike tobacco, global consumption is expected to increase in the foreseeable future.

The 2018 Climate Tracker suggests our current efforts at controlling climate change will be able to contain temperature increase to only about 3.4C.

With regards to illegal drugs, the death toll is about 450,000 a year, mostly from opioids. The trend is of escalating demand and supply, with approximately 5.6 per cent of the global population using illegal drugs at least once a year Numbers of consumers are not declining, and neither is supply. The total area under opium poppy cultivation worldwide increased by 37 per cent from 2016 to

2017, while global cocaine manufacture recently reached its highest level ever.

Of environmental objectives, the evidence suggests that while, overall, people are living better lives than a decade ago, the rate of global progress is not keeping pace with the established targets for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Two areas are of particular concern. The goal of most of the international community in the 2015 Paris Agreement was to hold human-caused global warming at a level to which ecosystems can adapt – well below 2 degrees Celsius, and ideally, not above

1.5C over pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. Evidence has now shown that, by 2017, we had already heated the Earth 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, and the most recent measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( are at a level not seen in the last 4m years. The 2018 Climate Tracker suggests our current efforts at controlling climate change will be able to contain temperature increase to only about 3.4C.

Biodiversity loss is the second major challenge. The 2018 Living Planet Report documented an overall decline in the abundance of vertebrate populations of 60 per cent between 1970 and 2014. In the tropics, South and Central America suffered an

89 per cent decline. Similarly, freshwater species have shown an 83 per cent decline in the same period. All these declines are quick stepping stones to rapidly escalating levels of endangered species, with 26,000 species now threatened with extinction.

In short, 2018 was not a good year. It is hoped, for the species with so much potential, 2019 will be better.