How Black Caps can win the Cup
New Zealand have a team capable of winning the Cricket World Cup in July, but they will struggle even to qualify for the semifinals if they do not make four big improvements. The questionable quartet is their death bowling, their middle order, their fielding and their running between wickets.
Let’s start with the bowling at the end of the innings. It has not been good for a while. New Zealand failed to defend a massive T20 total against Australia last year. There is too much variation and not enough accuracy. They could learn a great deal from Lasith Malinga who, for 10 years, has been one of the best death bowlers in the world.
I don’t expect New Zealand to emulate Malinga’s slingy action, although it is curious that it was once described as ‘‘an action that invites inaccuracy’’. Its accuracy has stood up to stress extremely well over the years.
It is a surprise there are not more slingers in world cricket but it is probably a question of too many coaches. It is not an orthodox action so kids have it coached out of them, despite the success of people such as Jeff Thomson, Malinga and Mitchell Johnson.
Thomson grew up in a backyard where there wasn’t enough room for a run-up so ‘‘I just sort of stood there and whanged it’’. New Zealand needs more whangers. Malinga once took four successive wickets in an international against South Africa. Whang, whang, whang, whang. Even the Indian Jasprit Bumrah, who is ranked the world’s best one-day bowler, has quite a low, wide wind at the start of his action.
Some of Malinga’s power comes from the upper body strength he developed as the champion swimmer of his village in his youth. He was spotted by former Sri Lanka coach Champaka Ramanayake, who also put Malinga’s pace down to ‘‘bowling with a soft ball. With the lighter soft ball, you cannot get that speed with the high arm, that’s why he bowled like that. You had to develop something. He developed that action, and we never touched the uniqueness.’’
That is how javelin throwers generate their power, so it is a surprise more fast bowlers do not develop that way. It can make the ball harder to see out of the hand and is a recipe for fast yorkers.
This is the recipe New Zealand lack. Their ability to bowl yorkers at the death is chronically poor. Matt Henry managed one at the end of the first ODI against Sri Lanka, but as a group the bowlers struggle.
Is it more difficult from such orthodox actions? Is there a reluctance to try it? At times Tim Southee has managed to bowl the yorker wide of off stump, but at other times he is a liability at the death. Too often he is unable to control his length. In the second ODI against Sri Lanka, Southee appeared to be trying to bowl yorkers, but they ended up as not particularly low full tosses. He was repeatedly whacked for six.
Some of the other fixes should be easier for New Zealand. Their fielding is sloppier than it was a few years ago. They dropped chance after chance in the second ODI. Five catches, none of them particularly hard, went down in a short space of time.
The running between wickets was also not good enough. Ross Taylor in particular needs to spend time on this. He was involved in two run-outs in the second ODI and there have been too many over his career. Before the series against India he should spend the week practising his running between wickets. It may seem odd at his age, old dogs and new tricks and all that, but Taylor can get a lot better with specialised coaching.
Finally the middle order. The return of Mitchell Santner will help, and will also strengthen the bowling. One of the reasons England are ranked No 1 in the world at the moment is they have four in the top 13 allrounders and a wicketkeeper who is a superb one-day batsman. They can hit their way out of a lot of trouble.
The series against India should enable New Zealand to sort out a number of things. At the moment England and India are away at the top of the rankings. New Zealand and an ageing South African team are closely ranked at three and four.
New Zealand have as good a top batting order as any country in the world. But they need to tell Ish Sodhi, their best bowler in the first two ODIs, and Santner that they will be the stranglers in the middle overs of the World Cup.
Adil Rashid, a leg-spinner, and Moeen Ali, an off-spinner, were very successful on their home pitches for England against Australia and India last summer. Rashid is a wicket taker and Ali a container, not unlike the New Zealand pair. New Zealand cannot choose between their spinners – in English one-day conditions they have to play both. I would also like to see Williamson bowl a few more overs as Joe Root does effectively for England.
Trent Boult plays as the best fast bowler. Jimmy Neesham or Colin de Grandhomme is the hitting allrounder. That means the final bowling spot is between Southee, Henry and Lockie Ferguson. Surely you pick horses for courses. So Southee plays the penultimate pool game against Australia at Lord’s, where he has been previously successful with the slope. But Ferguson might play the final pool game against England at the Riverside where quicker, skiddier bowlers have prospered.
New Zealand play their pool matches on eight different grounds and their opening three games are against three of the four lowest-ranked teams in the tournament. They need to be adaptable and they need to get off to a fast start. New Zealand has the talent to win the World Cup if they got a large share of the luck that the successful team always needs – but they need to sort out the glitches in a hurry before they are also run out for time.