Questions over census may affect electorates
National MPs say the troubled 2018 census means the electorates for the
2020 election will be based on ‘‘guesswork’’ and the party is calling for a new census to fix the problem.
Statistics NZ is confident its muchdelayed census data will be ready for the drawing of the electorate boundaries before the 2020 election – and that it will be of a good-enough quality. But National Party leader Simon Bridges says it is ‘‘hard to have confidence’’ in the department, and the
2013 census should be used until another census can be completed, preferably as early as 2021.
The 2018 census data release has been delayed three times due to a lower-than-expected response rate, with about 400,000 people not responding – leading to fears the population information used to redraw electorate boundaries will not be ready in time for the next election.
Statistics NZ internally acknowledged a ‘‘high risk’’ of this happening.
But during a blistering annual review before a select committee yesterday, chief statistician Liz MacPherson said she was completely confident the data would be ready for the Electoral Commission to draw up the boundaries for each electorate.
‘‘We keep in close contact with the Electoral Commission and [Land Information NZ] and are confident that we will deliver in time to meet their requirements,’’ MacPherson said. ‘‘We understand completely their deadlines.’’
It is estimated Statistics NZ managed only a 90 per cent response rate during the initial census – lower than usual, and not every one of those responses was ‘‘full’’.
The census was the first to use a ‘‘digital-first’’ model that has been highly criticised, as there were not enough offline census packs delivered to people who did not wish to fill out the census online.
Stats NZ is now patching the data up with information collected by other government departments.
After every five-yearly census, a report called ‘‘the population data for electoral redraws’’ is first provided to Land Information NZ’s surveyorgeneral, who redraws the boundaries of electorates to accommodate population shifts.
A representation commission – administered by the Electoral Commission with members including the surveyor-general, the government statistician, a judge and representatives of both the Government and Opposition, then spend six months adjusting and confirming the new boundaries.
National’s electoral reform spokesman Nick Smith has raised the possibility National might not accept the electorate boundaries if the data is not of sufficient quality.
MacPherson said as chief statistician she would never provide data that was not of top quality. ‘‘I wouldn’t be putting forward anything that I didn’t think was legitimate.’’
Smith told after the committee hearing that the answers from MacPherson were ‘‘fuzzy’’.
‘‘The backfilling of the 400,000 New Zealanders who were not counted in Census 2018 is little better than guesswork. You don’t know what you don’t know. We know that the 10 per cent who did not participate will be biased towards people who are older and less savvy online, and those living in rural areas and Ma¯ ori New Zealanders. It is totally unsatisfactory to be determining electorate boundaries that can effectively determine who will be the next Government on the basis of guesswork.’’
Smith said the 2020 election should be conducted on the basis of the existing boundaries from the 2013 census, and then a new census carried out in 2021 so the following elections could use new boundaries.
He said National was not ruling out ‘‘alternative action’’ if this did not happen but would not elaborate on what this might be.
The National Party would have the power to disrupt the Representation Commission, or settle the matter in court – although Bridges didn’t see legal action as a likely avenue.
Otago University law professor Andrew Geddis said the party would not have much of a leg to stand on legally in the courts.
‘‘So what happens if the National representative says this time: this whole exercise is flawed – I won’t participate? Well, [the law] says: The commission may make such rules for the conduct of its business, not inconsistent with the provisions of this act, as it thinks fit. So, basically it would be for the commission to do some kind of workaround of that situation – votes on decisions, or likewise,’’ Geddis said.
MacPherson said her department was not using ‘‘guesswork’’.
‘‘We are using our best professional judgment, using data both from the census, but also other government administrative data, such as tax data, to help fill in data gaps.