Two years in with a lot to do
The Coalition Government came in two years ago today with a bang. It is easy to forget now, in a ‘‘year of delivery’’ that has often been anything but, the feeling of rapid change unleashed by a party out of power for nine long years.
Tax cuts were cancelled, benefits boosted and new ones brought in, fees-free study introduced, the minimum wage lifted, paid parental leave increased, $3 billion allocated for the regions, and a multitude of work programmes begun.
Things that had seemed politically impossible for close to a decade began to seem not just realistic but in reach. A ban on foreign buyers of homes. Huge numbers of homes built by the Government. Actual action on climate change. A rebalancing of the tax system.
Then as the months wore on, the reality of coalition governing became more and more apparent.
Justice Minister Andrew Little’s swift humiliation at the hands of Winston Peters over his attempt to end ‘‘three strikes’’ made clear that NZ First had not transformed into liberals. It became clear that anything not explicitly in the coalition agreement or the speech from the throne was up for debate, and NZ First was happy to demand two full rounds of intervention in some policies. In many ways, Labour has been in retreat since those heady early days. The promises that were properly do-able were enacted early, while much of the harder stuff remains undone. Simple retail policies that people understand – like the winter energy payment or $60 per week baby bonus – mostly stem from that early period.
But simple statements on delivery and non-delivery never work perfectly across a Cabinet as varied in ability as the current one. After the Government’s two years in office there are areas of rapid progress and of relative static.
Education Minister Chris Hipkins is on a massive reform path.
Housing features massive failure (KiwiBuild), delay (rental reform), and serious progress (state housing).
Climate change policy has been frustrating and full of delays but is clearly something the prime minister cares about enough to really act on – see this week’s deal with the farming sector to eventually price agricultural emissions, even if it is a lot later than supporters would like.
Those who want to see the Government do more can point further back than the coalition agreement with Peters and all the way to the Budget Responsibility Rules Labour signed up to with the Greens, which seriously constrain spending even with the books in rosy shape. This, and a better than expected tax take, have led to a surplus fiscal hawks around the world would kill for.
Governments are more than just a policy plan, however, and Ardern’s premiership was changed forever by one of the darkest days in our modern history, on March 15. Her leadership in the following weeks was rhetorically and politically unmatchable. The policy work undertaken since on the internet is seriously internationally ambitious.
Electoral terms in New Zealand are fairly short but our system of government also makes it easy to change things quickly. We are about a year out from an election now, and the Government has a lot of money to splash around next year to entice voters to keep it in power. But as the date looms and the parties which make up this Government seek differentiation, getting things done may get even tougher.