Gloating English need a beating from the men in black
Hands in the air if you don’t like England. It’s the triumphalism that gets up people’s noses. Whenever England had a major moment against Australia, the likes of Henry Slade and Jamie George and Maro Itoje would holler and whoop and generally stick it in the faces of the Ockers.
And it’s not a good look, all these English arms in the air. When an empire – and the British empire did many wonderful things as well as all the bad – has oppressed millions of people over history, it’s not a bad idea to behave with some humility.
But even the good guys, the seriously bright guys in this England team, like Itoje, can’t help the fist pumping during a game. So now the world doesn’t know who to support this weekend. They don’t really want New Zealand to do a ‘three-peat’, not least so we don’t have to put up with that ghastly Americanism. But nor do they want England because, well, they’re England.
Me, I shall be rooting for New Zealand, which no doubt England coach Eddie Jones would expect because ‘‘you guys (in the New Zealand media) are just fans with keyboards’’. Only, the thing is, Eddie, I’m English, and even I don’t want England to win.
Because it’s about the rugby, stoopid. And this New Zealand team can play the beautiful game like no other team. England prefer to play the bootiful game. There’s a lot of talent in the team, and manfor-man they come close to matching the All Blacks, as reflected in my composite team below. At times England even play a bit of rugby – but a lot of it is awfully rigidly structured. There’s too much programming from control-freak Eddie.
So here’s what England will do. From their own half they will kick a fair bit and rely on their excellent kick chase. And they will hope to put in a massive early hit.
Former England halfback Danny Care observed: ‘‘Eddie talks about the hit-first mentality. Throwing the first punch, not taking a backward step, being the aggressor, taking the game to New
Zealand, rather than sitting back and letting them play.
‘‘One clip Eddie has shown the squad many times is from the 2015 World Cup final. After receiving the opening kick-off, Aaron Smith puts up a box-kick. Israel Folau takes the high ball but gets smashed by Kieran Read. That one tackle sets the tone for the whole match which is what Eddie means by the hit-first mentality.’’
England won’t be bothered so much about who dominates possession, because that can be such a false statistic. If one team scored immediately every time they get the ball, and the other team rumbles through phase after phase, and gets nowhere, then guess which team wins and which team gets hammered.
No, Jones will want England to be accurate. If they repeat what they did against Australia, then England will send first up runners early on. It limits the chances of mistakes, builds a bit of confidence and doesn’t give the All Blacks turnover ball.
And as the match develops they will start to send Manu Tuilagi. Nick Evans wants England to run him at Richie Mo’unga. And that will happen off lineouts unless New Zealand change their defensive formation for that phase of play.
England had a lot of success against Australia with Tuilagi carrying off lineouts and getting over the gain line. England would then move the ball the same way out to the wing. Win that second phase and then they went back the other way, hitting the defence twice with runners coming back on a slight angle and then a third time going wider to the outside as the defence ran out of numbers. It was
What a team
Composite All Blacks/England XV: Beauden Barrett, Anthony Watson, Jack Goodhue, Manu Tuilagi, George Bridge, Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith, Billy Vunipola, Kieran Read, Tom Curry, Maro Itoje, Brodie Retallick, Kyle Sinckler, Codie Taylor, Mako Vunipola.
In my view there are only six certainties – Barrett, Smith, Itoje, Retallick, Sinckler and Mako Vunipola. You can argue just about every other position and I am sure that you will!
simple, but it was well executed and effective, leading to two tries.
England will also try to get in New Zealand’s faces. That is not as easy as it was a few months ago. England still rush up but they now check earlier than before in order not to risk a red card tackle.
That pause has created a little extra space for the attack. Australia had quite a bit of success running at the inside shoulder of the second or third man in England’s defence. England still push a man up hard on the outside, but there are a couple of soft spots in John Mitchell’s defensive organisation, even though England have been the most successful defence in the tournament so far.
But the key to the game may well be which team manages to protect its halfback better. Ben Youngs has not been playing well for a while, but England prospered in the quarterfinal because Youngs had his best game in ages.
But Youngs can flap. His pass can disintegrate. His box-kicking can be erratic. All three New Zealand halfbacks are better players. If New Zealand can get at Youngs, then they will win.
The All Blacks will also go after the England lineout. The brilliance of Courtney Lawes’ defence means he is in ahead of George Kruis, but Kruis is the better lineout forward. England try to use Tom Curry as a third jumper, but Australia picked him off. New Zealand have four defensive jumpers with the selection of Scott Barrett and will fancy their chances. They had success at Twickenham last year and it was enough to get them over the line.
England will try to strangle New Zealand, to make them choke, but are England good enough? Individually they have the talent to match up and recent matches suggest it will be close. There has been three points or fewer between the teams in three of the last four matches.
But against that New Zealand keep winning the tight ones. Wales won against France because they are used to winning and France are used to losing. France were much the better side and they still lost.
So England have to get over their history in more ways than one. They have lost all three World Cup meetings against New Zealand and they have won only one of the last 16 encounters. About the only historical stat going for them is that they have a better percentage record in World Cup semifinals than New Zealand.
I expect the All Blacks to win, with that one nagging doubt. Eddie Jones brought Curry into this England side when he was still very green, just so he would be ready for this World Cup. Steve Hansen has made his moves much later and there are at least six players in this New Zealand team who lack big international match experience.
Tonight we will find out if they are ready.