Future of drought and disease

A newborn today faces a future transformed by climate change, first by lack of food and then extreme weather, researchers say.

As a baby they’ll be affected by rising food prices, as a child, they’ll be the first to suffer from diseases spread by soaring temperatures, and as a teen the worsening air pollution. By the time they are adults, extreme weather events will intensify.

OraTaiao, NZ Climate and Health Council, co-convener Dr Alexandra Macmillan said despite what some people may think, New Zealanders will not be exempt. Based on research from 35 global institutions, the 2019 The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate report says: ‘‘The life of every child born today will be profoundly affected by climate change. Without accelerated intervention, this new era will come to define the health of people at every stage of their lives.’’

Crop failure

As temperatures rise, harvests will shrink – threatening food security and driving up food prices, and children born today will suffer it as soon as they are infants, the report said.

The average global yield potential of maize, winter wheat, soybean, and rice has declined over the past 30 years. The Ministry for Primary Industries said climate change would affect how much was grown and harvested in New Zealand.

Macmillan said it was wellknown New Zealand’s food production must change. ‘‘We know that our traditions and the way our food system works is driving an epidemic of obesity and diabetes, we also have problems with food security for low income households,’’ she said. ‘‘But also, that same food production is also responsible for nearly half of our greenhouse gas emissions.’’

Disease outbreak

Infectious diseases would spread faster as temperatures soar. Macmillan said the country’s freshwater issues were of particular concern. ‘‘New Zealand has a freshwater crisis . . . we might not think that’s related to climate change, but we have tens of thousands of waterborne illnesses. When the water gets warmer, it makes it easier for them to spread.’’ The 2016 campylobactor outbreak in Havelock North was one example, she said.

Air quality

A child born today would breathe toxic air as they move through adolescence and into adulthood, the report said. Airborne particles from bushfires are especially damaging, said Ivan Hanigan, a data scientists in epidemiology at the University of Sydney. They impact the respiratory system through their inhalation, affect the cardiovascular system, and even our brains, causing toxicity and systemic inflammation. ‘‘There may even be life-threatening sepsis.’’

Extreme weather events

By adulthood, a child born today would be at increased risk of severe floods, prolonged drought and wildfires, the report said. ‘‘Across the world, an average temperature increase of 1°C from a pre-industrial baseline has already resulted in extreme climatic and environmental changes.’’

Australia was used as an example, where some crop yields have stalled by harvests being increasingly affected by drought. ‘‘Prolonged drought remains one of the most dangerous environmental determinants of premature mortality, affecting hygiene and sanitation, as well as resulting in reduced crop yields, food insecurity, and malnutrition.’’

Mental health

Macmillan said the effects of climate change on mental health were already well-known. Drought and climate were threatening profits for farming and fisheries, and those in the industry were experiencing an impact on mental health and financial health.

A recent study into what young people worry about featured climate change as a top concern.

Health planning needed

New Zealand’s health sector wasn’t prepared to deal with the health consequences of climate change, Macmillan said.

‘‘Despite massive amounts of evidence about climate change and health, health is really still missing from climate change policy. We talk a lot about the impact of climate change on the economy or business or biodiversity, but what’s really missing is the impacts on climate change on us,’’ she said.

The report echoes Macmillan’s statement. It said governments worldwide need to step up.