Electorate shuffle accounts for population growth
South Auckland is set to receive a new electorate named Flat Bush ahead of the next election.
The Representation Commission, using figures from the controversial
2018 census, has proposed a long list of changes to the electorate boundaries for the 2020 and 2023 elections.
The public can respond to these proposed boundaries and suggest changes but most are likely to remain mostly intact.
The National Party, which demanded the next election be run with previous electorate boundaries because of problems with the census, appears to have accepted the changes.
Principal among the changes is the creation of a new electorate called Flat Bush in south Auckland, which would take in parts of the existing Hunua, Manurewa, and Papakura electorates. Nominally, it appears this new electorate could fall to National, as it takes in more than
45,000 votes from current National electorates Hunua and Papakura compared with more than 21,000 from current Labour seat Manurewa.
This new electorate is required as the population has grown significantly in these areas, with Hunua and Papakura both having populations of more than 14 per cent above the average for North Island electorates.
Parliament remains at 120 seats, meaning there would be one less list MP, with 72 electorates to 48 list MPs.
The creation of a new electorate will create a domino effect across Auckland, with changes to Helensville, Rodney, New Lynn, Mt Roskill, Maungakiekie, and Manukau
East. Several name changes are suggested to reflect these changes: with Hunua renamed ‘‘Port Waikato’’ to reflect its new share of Waikato voters, and Rodney renamed Whangaparaoa as it takes in Dairy Flat and Coatesville.
The electorates of about 251,300 people will be changed.
These changes ripple out across the upper North Island but none of the general electorates in the lower North Island are changed – other than a name change from Rimutaka to Remutaka.
Electoral law requires that there are always 16 general electorates in the South Island and that the electorates are roughly the same size.
The average electorate takes in about 66,000 voters.
Several changes will likely be made to South Island electorates, particularly around Christchurch.
Selwyn, which is too large, will lose Banks Peninsula – mostly to Port Hills, which will be renamed Banks Peninsula.
Brightwater moves from Nelson to
West-Coast Tasman. The Otago Peninsula moves from Dunedin South to Dunedin North.
The number of Ma¯ ori electorates remains at seven, with several boundary changes between them.
Ta¯ maki Makaurau gains an area around Te Atatu South from Te Tai Tokerau and some of east Manurewa from Hauraki-Waikato.
Chair of the Representation Commission Judge Craig Thompson said National’s representative on the commission, Roger Sowry, had not raised any objections to using Census 2018 data. This was despite a firm intention from National to ‘‘oppose’’ new electorates as they had issues with the last census.
An external review of the census found that its population estimates were accurate enough for electorate drawing.
National’s electoral reform spokesman Nick Smith said his party retained its preference that the election be run on the old boundaries but would not interfere in the lawful running of the commission.