NZ can lead way on fossil fuels
About that climate crisis – do you want to hear the bad news or the good news first? Bad news: a new report has found countries are planning to extract fossil fuels from the ground in volumes that would dramatically overrun global climate goals.
But here’s the good news: New Zealand is one of a handful taking action to stop extracting oil and gas and, despite our comparatively small production volumes, we could play a vital role in the necessary global shift.
When Jacinda Ardern announced in April last year that the Government would stop allowing new offshore oil and gas exploration, proponents applauded the move as showing bold leadership on climate, while the opposition denounced it as uneconomic.
A report called The Production Gap, released last night by a consortium of five international think tanks and the United Nations Environment Programme – of which I am a co-author – suggests New Zealand was right to stop issuing permits for exploration.
It quantifies, for the first time, the fossil fuel ‘‘production gap’’ – the difference between global plans for producing coal, oil and gas, and production levels allowable under internationally agreed temperature limits. The report highlights New Zealand among a handful of ‘‘role model’’ countries that have adopted policies to restrict fossil fuel production.
It’s hard to argue with the maths. Under the Paris Agreement, governments agreed to limit global warming to ‘‘well below’’ 2 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to stay below 1.5C. The IPCC special report on 1.5C made clear the importance of keeping warming to the lower level.
But currently governments are planning to produce 50 per cent more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with a 2C pathway, and 120 per cent more than would allow the world to meet the 1.5C goal. Burning fossil fuels accounts for over 75 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions.
To date, most countries have focused on ‘‘demand side’’ policies to combat climate change, including measures to incentivise renewable energy and energy efficiency. But many governments that have committed to cutting their carbon emissions plan to increase fossil fuel production at the same time.
This doesn’t add up. Alongside measures like carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, governments also need to take action on the ‘‘supply side’’ to limit and ultimately phase down fossil fuel production.
In this light, New Zealand is ahead of the global curve, although a review of our coal production would also be timely. The report also taps us as a role model in terms of planning for a ‘‘just transition’’, in which nobody is left behind in the shift away from fossil fuels, given the Government’s 30-year timeframe, inclusive planning process and investments in local infrastructure and clean energy projects to diversify the Taranaki economy away from oil and gas.
We are not alone in taking action. France, Denmark, Belize and Costa Rica have also partially or totally banned oil and gas exploration and extraction. Germany and Spain are phasing out coal mining.
Several national and international financial institutions are stopping investments in fossil fuel exploration and production. But many other countries need to follow our lead – and we can help them get there.
Right now, New Zealand is comparatively well-regarded on climate by the international community. At last year’s UN Climate Conference in Poland, we played a small but important role as a member of the High Ambition Coalition, the group pushing for a strong response to the IPCC special report on 1.5C. Our reputation has now been made even stronger by the passage of the Zero Carbon Bill.
All this was reflected at September’s Climate Action Summit when the UN secretary-general gave us the honour of being the first country to speak. As someone who was at the summit, I can say the reception given to Ardern in New York contrasted strongly with that shown to others such as Boris Johnson and Donald Trump.
And it marks a massive change from the way we had earlier been perceived – as a New Zealand youth delegate to UN climate talks from 2013-15, I remember how we were left out of key political groupings due to our record of inaction.
In view of the urgent need to reduce fossil fuel supply, New Zealand can do even more to leverage this strong reputation. To wind down fossil fuel production globally, international co-operation is key. While stopping our own oil and gas production represents only a small amount of what is needed, we can punch above our weight by joining with other fast movers to turn the tide.
To this effect, the Government could report the oil and gas exploration ban in our updated pledge under the Paris Agreement, which we are due to submit in 2020. This can help other countries learn from our experiences – and normalise including these sorts of commitments in reporting under that agreement, which doesn’t mention fossil fuels.
In addition, we could form a coalition of countries taking action to reduce fossil fuel production, which would help foster supply-side action in other countries.
This could even take the form of a new international accord, such as a ‘‘fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty’’ or commitments to ‘‘fossil fuel-free zones’’. In the past we’ve spearheaded progressive coalitions in many areas, from fisheries to subsidy reform – we can do it again.
We, the public, must continue to give the Government a strong mandate for climate action at home and internationally. New Zealand is on the right track, and building on our reputation for climate leadership we can do even more to help reduce fossil fuel production worldwide.
Natalie Jones is a a PhD student in international law at the University of Cambridge.