The big one
goals. ‘‘Recovering from a disaster is a complex process that may take months, years and decades to overcome. Disasters affect people, but also the environment, built infrastructure and the economy. We aim to work to help people get back to acceptable quality of life as soon as possible.’’
What are we preparing for?
The AF8 group’s researchers have come up with a ‘‘maximum credible event’’ in their South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (Safer) Framework, a worst-case scenario to prepare for in the event of an alpine rupture.
This event ‘‘represents the most widespread and severe damage credibly possible from an Alpine Fault rupture’’, and, aside from risk to life, it outlines infrastructural weaknesses throughout the South Island which make for grim reading.
‘‘The South Island’s road network, fuel, water, air transport, electricity, telecommunications and marine transport infrastructure are vulnerable to disruption from earthquakes and lack redundancy,’’ the Safer report reads.
‘‘Telecommunications services are increasingly hubbed in major centres, are not locally or regionally autonomous, and therefore vulnerable to failure caused by link disruption. Key electricity generation and distribution components are concentrated near to the Alpine Fault and widely distributed, making them similarly vulnerable.’’
Though AF8 is working on a South Island-wide scenario, these events were writ smaller, though still significant, in various local events over the past decade, like the long, hard work to reopen State Highway 1 after the 2016 earthquake and various alternate routes called into action during the disruption when Kaiko¯ ura was cut off.
Network vulnerabilities were also brought home last December to Spark customers living further south than Ashburton, when wild weather, floods and slips cut off Spark’s two fibre-optic cables at the Rangitata River, leaving many residents with nothing but 111 phone service.
Adding it up
All of these effects add up to a costly exercise.
The damage from the Canterbury earthquakes was in 2011 estimated by the Treasury in that year to be between $10 billion and $15b, with the assumed cost of the rebuild being the equivalent of about 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
It was calculated in 2012 by insurer Swiss Re to be globally the third most expensive earthquake in history, with economic losses up to $22b, partly thanks to New Zealand’s unusually high levels of earthquake insurance.
A 2017 Market Economics report on the Kaiko¯ ura quake modelled three two-year scenarios and found an economic loss of between $465 million and $513m.
Simon Bridges, then the minister of economic development and of transport, said at the time that ‘‘two key contributing factors’’ were increased freight costs and the effects of infrastructure damage.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) development and transitions policy director Robyn Henderson says the response to disaster events is always ‘‘situation specific’’.
MBIE learns from previous events where possible, she says, and updates regulations to reduce damage, and therefore costs, in future events.
‘‘For example, recent changes to the Building Code such as the one last November where buildings on liquefaction-prone ground will require specifically designed foundations.’’
But when disaster strikes, MBIE and the government work with local authorities on rebuild and recovery, she says.
‘‘Examples of the roles that MBIE is well placed to play include capability provided to local government, direct financial assistance, or regulatory changes to respond to the changing context – for example, immigration changes may be needed to enable the free flow of necessary workers with needed skills into New Zealand.’’
All in it together
The message seems to be that communities will need to work together to lead themselves through disaster.
Pool says people need to be prepared for the reality that Civil Defence is not ‘‘an army in cold storage’’.
‘‘I tend to think that people have the impression that perhaps we’re the Terracotta Warriors, that somehow we will all rise up and there will be this huge resource, when actually the resource is within the community.’’
Though government agencies work on policies to reduce risks and potential costs, and prepare to distribute emergency responders and resources should the need arise, community preparation is a key step that people can take action on.
‘‘People need to understand that they will be looking after themselves and their neighbours for an extended period depending on the magnitude of the emergency,’’ Pool says.
‘‘I wouldn’t presume to put any sort of time frame on it, but if you look again at the impacts of the Kaiko¯ ura earthquake, it took a year to reopen one length of SH1, with all the resources that went into it.
‘‘So if you look at an earthquake that affects the whole of the South Island, I think it’s reasonable to assume that this is not going to be any sort of quick return to normality for many people.’’