Quarantine the vital next step

Aweek ago, University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said that his peers overseas were looking at New Zealand’s lockdown and cheering us on. Unlike most of them, we are engaged in a strategy to eliminate Covid-19 rather than merely suppress or mitigate it.

Two weeks into the lockdown, with only two deaths and a declining rate of new cases, we can confidently say it is working, although continued success depends on the same level of vigilance and commitment that we saw in the first fortnight. It is not time to relax the social distancing.

We can also see how an alternative strategy might have unfolded. New Zealand might have been Sweden or, worse, Spain or Italy. Sweden famously took a more relaxed line on Covid-19 than its European neighbours and may be realising at last that it has made a serious mistake. By Thursday, Sweden had seen more than 8000 cases and nearly 700 deaths. Its population is around twice ours. Spain and Italy, as we know, have been seriously overwhelmed.

We have been lucky, but luck’s only part of it. Geographical isolation scarcely protects anyone any more. Instead, we have benefited from good management. The Government has been both decisive in its planning and clear in its communications.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has cited scientific modelling several times over the past week that has suggested that, without the level 4 lockdown, we would have seen 4000 cases of Covid-19 by this weekend, rather than a little over 1000. That corresponds more closely to Sweden’s numbers. With every infected person passing Covid-19 to between two and three others, it is easy to see how dramatically numbers can climb.

Even as new cases decline, it still makes sense to tighten border controls and enforce a mandatory two-week quarantine, as Ardern announced on Thursday. She explained that ‘‘even one person slipping through the cracks and bringing the virus in can see an explosion in cases as we have observed with some of our bigger clusters’’.

Thursday’s announcement was no great surprise. The new restrictions had been signalled all week by Ardern, starting with Monday’s press conference with director-general of health Dr

Ashley Bloomfield.

As with the moves between alert levels, news of the quarantines was staggered so as not to frighten anyone. On Tuesday, Ardern warned New Zealanders that ‘‘more will be expected from them’’ at our borders. The signs were clear. Quarantines are just one of three new pillars to eliminate Covid-19. The other two are increased testing and contact tracing. There is talk of a phone app similar to one developed in

Singapore that could monitor interactions. Rather than easing off after a successful fortnight, the Government has opted instead to do more in the hope of eliminating Covid-19 from the country. The decisions are well-informed and will be followed by a population that wants to see the same result. But the public buy-in would not have happened without clear, empathetic messaging that reflects a scientific and even political consensus.