An opportunity for a guided recovery

Humanity is facing a complex health crisis that has impacted many lives and livelihoods, and it continues to do so at a hyper pace. Covid-19 has become a threat to our health and the stability of our economy.

Thus far, most approaches around the world have rightfully focused on saving lives, at all costs. Responses have slightly varied across different countries from full lockdowns to restrictions on activities that spread community transmissions.

There are some countries like South Korea who have taken a different path – exercising mass testing and contact tracing to address community spread while minimising countrywide restrictions.

Protecting livelihoods has also been a priority worldwide, with many countries announcing economic relief packages.

For instance, in New Zealand, the Wage Subsidy Scheme as of April 7, supported 1,073,129 workers (41 per cent of the New Zealand workforce) totalling current spend at $6.6 billion. The wage subsidy is part of a total stimulus package of $12.1 billion announced by the New Zealand Government.

There is uncertainty around what we do next to save lives and how long can our healthcare system sustain managing the outbreak, and its ability to scale fast due to a community transmitted outbreak. Do we extend the lockdown for another 4 to 8 weeks before easing on restrictions? Should it apply to all regions even if some regions display a minimal risk of community transmission?

The other priority is an economic response focusing on reopening all sectors. The question that comes to mind is; do we restart the economy at a national level or do we activate it in regions where community transmission is extremely unlikely? If the latter was to take place, what capability do we need to have in place to activate and regulate a re-opening?

Last Sunday, the Prime Minister referred to the modelling provided by Rodney Jones, Principal of Wigram Capital Advisors, that had predicted about 4000 cases by now at the start of the lockdown, instead, they were at about 1000.

This is evidence that the decisions the government has made to date have made a difference.

The equally complex challenge is restarting the economy. The two big questions that need figuring out here are when to restart and how do we do it?

If we can show steady signs of flattening the curve by the end of the Alert 4 period, as initially planned, I see it as appropriate to be thinking about restarting the economy. The conversation around economic recovery can happen in parallel (to saving lives) if we all recognise that the fight against Covid-19 outbreak in New Zealand is just the end of the beginning.

Restarting the economy is simply dependent on our ability to detect and respond to cases – having advanced system readiness for identifying, managing, and preventing new cases to drive low virus spread. Based on restarting models applied by other countries, the Government must recognise that regions may differ in their readiness to restart their economies. If a region has a high number of transmission cases, then opening up economic activity will only lead to more cases. The Government can start exploring plans of regional restarting as some measure of economic activity. For instance, regions with advanced healthcare systems and few or no cases, where tracking and isolation of transmission are still probable may be a lesser risk than a region with a medium to weak healthcare systems and new cases.

Based on this scenario, regions that need to maintain strong healthcare measures until the speed of the transmission slows – will need to continue in Alert 4. Other regions do not need to undergo the same restrictions and could potentially resume some of their economic activity.

Creating a 4-stage readiness framework for economic recovery can guide regions to reopen parts of the economy.

For each stage, the Government can define the level of intensity of actions to be taken. Coordination of policies among regions is crucial to avoid conflicting solutions that could accelerate the transmission. Such a framework could also offer businesses an idea of what to expect, which in turn can facilitate economic actions on a nation-wide scale.

The readiness framework can include population movement, remote work, essential economic sectors, non-essential economic sectors, gatherings, and transport.

As the government analyses each region’s economic structure, they can identify regions where the economy can be restarted. For each region, the government will need to assess the risk of transmission and the relative economic importance of every sector. Essential sectors are already operating nationwide. Remaining sectors can be incrementally reopened regionally, and in groups.

Sectors that have been reopened, will need to follow protocols such as remote work, health guidelines, frequent monitoring of people’s temperatures for early deduction of new cases, reporting back to authorities, and enforcement measures.

We have the opportunity to deliberately shape the recovery of our economy instead of letting it organically recover; lacking deliberate guidance. That will be a missed opportunity.

Adnan Belushi is the chief executive of New Plymouth’s community-based work and innovation space Johnson Corner.

The two big questions that need figuring out here are when to restart and how do we do it?