National’s big decision

As National MPs file into a crucial caucus today to decide the leadership there are only two questions they have to answer: is the next election still winnable for National? And if the answer is yes, then is Simon Bridges is the man to make that happen?

On current polls, the answer has to be no. But can an unknown do any better?

The polls, of course, are only a snapshot in time – and quite an extraordinary moment in our time at that.

But they only mirror what we all hear anecdotally, that voters just can’t warm to Bridges.

The question is whether Bridges can turn that around between now and September and, if not, whether people are willing to hold their noses and vote for National anyway, even if they don’t much like Bridges’ combative style.

If it was just about personality, maybe.

But voters rarely judge leaders on something so superficial.

They will judge them on the more important issue of character and judgment, and the qualities they look for in a prime minister.

Bridges’ failure to read the mood on the lockdown may be his most egregious failure of judgment but it is not the only one; the Jami-Lee Ross fiasco was a spectacular own goal that made National look like it was embroiled in the worst kind of petty politics. The sort of thing that kept Labour in Opposition for nine years, in fact.

But there are risks no matter which option National takes. It won’t worry MPs too much that the alternative is a relative newcomer, Todd Muller, with zero name recognition. If Muller wins, his profile will get an immediate boost from the wall-to-wall coverage. A honeymoon period might even seem quite seductive to some; it will be a welcome opportunity to shift the focus away from the Government and Jacinda Ardern after months of her crisis management being the only show in town.

But they will also remember another relative unknown, former Labour leader David Shearer, who floundered under the intense scrutiny that goes hand in hand with the job.

At its heart, however, today’s vote is about whoever is best to win the most important election in decades, and – to be blunt – which of the two contenders is the best salesperson for the party of John Key and Bill English. Voters’ memories of the dark days after the global financial crisis and the devastating earthquakes are still fresh enough that National’s legacy from those years was sustaining its vote even until recently, until coronavirus happened.

With this election set to be fought on the same themes of debt, jobs, livelihoods, and financial security, the fear for National is that Bridges is squandering that residual loyalty and making it a contest about him versus Ardern. That’s a contest he can never win.

Muller, with his corporate background, and backing from party traditionalists, including former prime minister Jim Bolger, harks back to the likes of Key, English and Steven Joyce. And if he wins, he will have the space to bring the election squarely back to the ground National wants to fight it on, the economy.

The big gamble is whether voters will be more likely to listen to Muller, having clearly tuned out Bridges.

And they can’t know that till they roll the dice.

Bridges’ failure to read the mood on the lockdown may be his most egregious failure of judgment but it is not the only one ...