Faith in vaccine is ‘quite risky’
Waiting for a coronavirus vaccine is a risky strategy, according to the architect of Sweden’s Covid-19 plan, who has warned that measures must be put in place to protect the public that are ‘‘sustainable and can be kept going for a long time’’.
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and the man responsible for the country’s decision to keep its economy open and avoid lockdown, told The Daily Telegraph: ‘‘A lot of people claim that the Swedish strategy is very risky, but I would say that putting so much faith in a vaccine is also quite risky.’’
More than 100 different projects are under way around the world to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus, which Boris Johnson described last month as the ‘‘only feasible long-term solution’’ to ending the crisis.
But Tegnell, who is the state epidemiologist for the Public Health Agency of Sweden, questioned whether this was a realistic or viable approach. ‘‘Historically, it’s not been that easy to produce vaccines for diseases – and this is a disease where the immunology seems to be quite complicated,’’ he said. ‘‘That’s usually not a good sign that the vaccine will work very well.’’
He said countries should instead embrace sustainable, long-term measures designed to reduce transmission, because the virus ‘‘will stay with us for a substantial time, probably forever’’.
Unlike other countries in Europe which have put in place mandatory lockdown measures to stop the spread of the virus, Sweden adopted a more measured approach, including voluntary steps. Restaurants, bars and schools have all been allowed to remain open.
As a result, Sweden’s economy has been less severely impacted.
Figures released last month suggested Sweden’s GDP had contracted just 0.3 per cent in the first three months of the year, compared with 3.8 per cent across the eurozone.
In the UK, meanwhile, the economy contracted 2 per cent, the sharpest drop since the height of the financial crisis.
Tegnell, who is 64, said it was still unclear what effect a lockdown would have had in Sweden, saying that ‘‘lockdowns work very differently in different countries’’.
‘‘It’s quite obvious that Sweden got a huge influx of people with the disease in the spring holiday, which initiated quite a substantial spread here, similar to what was seen in the UK.
‘‘If we had a lockdown during that period, it’s very questionable what impact that would have had.’’
He added that initiating a series of lockdowns in the country would have been ‘‘difficult to do’’.
Tegnell said the intense debate over whether to reopen UK schools offered evidence that for the ‘‘population it was not that easy to understand that you can close things on and off. It doesn’t really make sense in their view, and I can understand that.
‘‘That is why Sweden has tried to go for something that is sustainable and can go on for a long time.’’
Across Europe, countries have been looking at different computer models of the epidemic to help shape policy.
In the UK, a report from academics at London’s Imperial College estimated that without any further action, as many as 250,000 people could have died from the virus.
The study triggered a government U-turn over strategy and a decision to order shops and offices to close and for people to stay at home.
However, Tegnell said Sweden had not placed too much trust on models of how the outbreak would spread because there were too many uncertainties about their accuracy.
– Telegraph Group