Bloomfield says New Zealand has no plan B, if level 1 fails
New Zealand has no ‘‘plan B’’ if alert level 1 fails.
Dr Ashley Bloomfield said working to eliminate Covid-19 is still the best strategy for New Zealand, even if there are new cases of the virus when we move to alert level 1.
‘‘We are sticking to our ‘plan A’ which is the elimination strategy that includes a plan on how to respond to infections and outbreaks,’’ he said.
‘‘I haven’t seen a better plan in other countries . . . so I don’t see any need for us to change the plan.
‘‘What we have done is geared up each aspect, so we are able to both prevent and also identify and rapidly contain any outbreaks that occur.’’
If there were any new cases when we move to level 1 – which could come as early as next week – it may be necessary to move back up the levels. But the aim was to contain the virus and remain within the level, he said.
Border measures were a crucial part of supporting ‘plan A’, but so was the ability to rapidly test and contact trace, he said.
Widespread testing had also been a key part of the success and there was testing capacity of 12,000 a day if needed. The system was being beefed up so level restrictions did not have to be put in place again, he said.
These would be stress-tested during the next few weeks. ‘‘We are still rolling out the information system to the final DHB, building up capacity and capability in our public health units, and we will do some exercises to test the system, to make sure we are ready.’’
Thirteen straight days of no new cases had been highly encouraging and would be helpful for the Cabinet to make its decision about a move to level 1, Bloomfield said. However, he was remaining cautious.
Elimination was not a sudden point in time and was an ongoing, sustained effort, he said.
‘‘I think we need to again be thoughtful and keep in mind we are coming out of a lockdown situation faster and sooner than any other country,’’ Bloomfield said. ‘‘Level 1 looks very much like normal life, which is very different from any other countries – even Australia.’’
Herd immunity
Bloomfield told that herd immunity to the coronavirus is a ‘‘distracting notion’’ and it was a long way off in any country.
Bloomfield said every country had done what was best for them at the time of the Covid-19 outbreak, and he believed Sweden’s health system had the resources to get on top of the virus, if officials changed their mind.
It comes as Sweden’s top epidemiologist said the country’s attempt to achieve herd immunity was a mistake.
Anders Tegnell, the brains behind Sweden’s controversial approach to fighting the virus, said on Swedish radio that more should have been done in his country to tackle Covid-19 at the start of the outbreak, in order to keep the death rate down.
Bloomfield said it was estimated that, once European countries that had large outbreaks got over them, only somewhere between 5 and 10 per cent of the population would have
been infected. ‘‘That is a long way off herd immunity,’’ he said.
‘‘I think the herd immunity notion is in a sense a distraction at the moment. The way New Zealand and most other countries are looking to get herd immunity is through putting all our efforts into a vaccine for the population.’’
Sweden chose a different path and everyone had been watching to find out whether their calls were right, Bloomfield said.
‘‘But if you don’t put in place those really strict measures at the border and strict measures inside the country, it shows what happens and how easy the virus spreads. It just shows this is a very tricky disease,’’ he said.
Vaccine efforts
Meanwhile, New Zealand was forging ahead with its vaccine strategy, he said.
‘‘It’s still a long way off, but we are starting to look at what the options might be . . . We are very keen to get people together who have previously worked on big immunisation programmes to work out ways for rapid and high vaccination rates across the population.’’
All the signals were that a vaccine was still some time off, he said.
Trans-Tasman bubble
Bloomfield said work on the trans-Tasman bubble was continuing at pace and he had registered the increasingly strong voices about whether Pacific nations could be brought into that bubble as well.
Issues included what sort of expectations there would be around case numbers, and the sense countries involved had outbreaks under control. Having no cases in New Zealand will be one of the things that will help open the border, he said.
Last week, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford confirmed the Government was undertaking a review of its current strict border restrictions.
Bloomfield said there would be big resource implications if the border opened further than Australia and maintained the 14-day isolation and quarantine requirements.
‘‘We already have 12 hotels that are being used and opening the border will require even more facilities to be staffed … that is no small undertaking and is part of a plan that is happening now .’’
The first consideration for opening the border was Australia, but after that it would include family reunification, people who were unable to come back because of visa issues and flights and international students, he said.
World interest
Bloomfield said he had received positive feedback from the World Health Organisation on New Zealand’s efforts, and this week he also spoke with the World Bank.
‘‘About how we work with the media and the campaign and daily stand ups and the role they played in really helping keep everyone informed on what was happening and expected.
‘‘I think a lot of our success is because people had a very clear understanding of what alert level 4 was and what was expected of them.’’