Two weeks a long time for Auckland voters
When the prime minister confirmed the new alert levels yesterday, she announced another two weeks of level 2 in the crucial battleground city of Auckland.
Auckland is where New Zealand’s elections are won and lost – it has the largest swath of swing voters. And in an MMP voting system it is simply the biggest numerical slice of middle New Zealand.
What happens there matters. To date, the country has gone along with the Government and enthusiastically supported both the Covid-19 response and Jacinda Ardern’s leadership.
She has ridden high off the back of it, claiming two National Party leaders along the way.
But another two weeks represent a long and slow return to something like normal life for the 1.6 million-odd residents of Greater Auckland.
When Auckland wakes up on Thursday, its residents will be able to do a bit more, while the rest of the country will already be back to level 1 on the same conditions as last time.
The New Zealand border will still be closed, and a lot of people will be doing it tough, but the appearance of ordinary life will come back: there will be no restrictions, no awkward shuffling in and out of the dairy, you will be able to go to a concert and order a drink at the bar.
Domestic tourism will start to bounce back again and a cautious normality will resume.
For those outside of Auckland, it felt like social distancing and all the other accoutrements associated with Covid-19 were rapidly being ignored anyway: the Government was at pains to point out there was no evidence of the disease outside of Auckland.
People responded: the mindset jumped ahead of the Government’s changes – even Ardern took selfies, throwing social distancing caution to the wind.
For Auckland, however, another two weeks in level 2, with
gatherings limited to 100 people, table service and strict rules upending the economics of hospitality and retail, it will now be feeling like a long grind.
The city has been in some form of restriction since August 11. It must be getting tiresome by now.
Add to that a truck crash on Auckland Harbour Bridge on Friday, which will reduce the road’s capacity in coming weeks, and it is easy to see how a certain grumpiness might set in.
Labour also knows the Government probably only has one more lockdown up its sleeve. Evidence from overseas jurisdictions – including Victoria in Australia – suggest lockdowns are subject to the law of diminishing returns.
The more you have, the fewer people follow the rules and the less effective they are. Yet on current figures, it appears New Zealand is heading along the path of elimination again. That all means that on Wednesday, October 7 – the day the current two-week extension to Covid-19 in Auckland ends, the city might be put back into level 1. That will leave a pretty decent feel-good factor in the final lead in to election day.
Daylight saving starts this weekend, so for most of New Zealand, people will be able to go out and do what they want.
On October 7, all of New Zealand could be in level 1. Then on October 11 the first All Blacks test of the year will be played in Wellington.
About half the electorate is expected to vote before polling day this year. But most of the undecided voters don’t vote until election day. It is not as good as Covid19 not re-emerging at all but Labour might have timed the run out of Covid-19 perfectly for the election.