Vaccines no silver bullet, airlines told
Airlines have been warned that coronavirus vaccines will not be a solution to the aviation industry’s problems, with quarantine requirements expected to persist for many months, and borders to open and close unpredictably.
Last year was the worst on record for the aviation industry due to Covid-19, with full year traffic down about two-thirds on 2019. And the International Air Transport Association (Iata) is predicting 2021 will not be much better, with losses of US$39 billion (NZ$54b) forecast for the global industry over the year.
Capa (Centre for Aviation) founder and chairman emeritus Peter Harbison said international air travel would struggle in 2021, with revenue for airlines in the first half looking ‘‘something close to catastrophic’’. Vaccines were ‘‘not the solution’’ to the industry’s problems and would instead be a ‘‘sideshow’’ for international aviation for most of the year.
Vaccines would take many months to roll out and vaccination priority was going to be for people who had, in most cases, lower travel propensity.
‘‘The younger, healthier people will not receive vaccinations till later in 2021 – if they receive them at all in 2021,’’ Harbison said.
‘‘Then there is the point that no-one is vaccinated until everybody is vaccinated.’’
The number of different vaccines, and their recognition and safety standards, would also be an issue, he said. ‘‘This remains with national health authorities and they have varying levels of risk tolerance.’’
Late last year, Iata developed a digital ‘‘Travel Pass’’ framework, allowing travellers to securely store and present information related to Covid-19 tests as well as their vaccination status in the future. In December, Air NZ alliance partner Singapore Airlines started trialling the app.
Harbison said the absence of corporate travel would significantly undermine the economics of long-haul flying. Airlines traditionally made their biggest margins selling business class fares to corporate travellers.
There should be a ‘‘modest acceleration’’ in airline revenue in some markets in the second half of 2021. Most routes connecting major cities or countries would not be commercially viable and would need government subsidies to remain open, Harbison said. Short-haul services would become increasingly competitive and lower yielding, and low cost carriers would be best placed to take advantage of the new market conditions.
Vaccines ‘‘not the solution’’.
Peter Harbison
Centre for Aviation