TROUBLE WITH AN ELUSIVE BUBBLE

The anticipation is killing us. When that first planeload of quarantine-free passengers finally arrives from Australia, possibly next month, they may be greeted at the airport by excited crowds worthy of the Beatles in the 1960s.

We’re joking, of course. But there is a way in which the trans-Tasman bubble has reached an almost mythic place in the New Zealand imagination. It has been talked about nearly as long as we have contended with Covid-19 itself. The idea is so old it once involved Winston Peters talking about Tasmania.

Is the bubble an illusion, a mirage, a political football? At times, it has seemed to be all of the above. It was Exhibit A in the Opposition’s narrative of an enormously popular prime minister who would prefer to guard her vast political capital rather than risk her popularity by spending it. Exhibit B was the belief the Government was unwilling to do anything substantial about the housing crisis, but this week’s announcement seems to have killed off that line of attack.

The contrast was striking, though. Monday’s announcement about the trans-Tasman bubble essentially told us to wait two weeks for another announcement. We will learn more on April 6, including the crucial detail of when the bubble is to begin, and whether there will be individual arrangements with the six states, as hinted at by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins is said to be optimistic the bubble will become a reality in the same month.

The airlines apparently need more time. It was also possible to see Monday’s announcement as a placeholder by a Government that is under pressure from the Opposition. It had to do or say something, even if it was simply: ‘‘More soon. Watch this space.’’ That said, the complexities are real. If either country closes its border due to a sudden Covid-19 outbreak in the other, then that country may also strand its own citizens in the infected country. What happens if a quarantine is reimposed while you are sunning yourself in Queensland? Insurance companies have said they won’t provide cover for quarantines and lockdowns.

The launch of the bubble will be both a calculated risk and a leap of faith, for governments in each country as well as for passengers. Less a case of buyer beware than flier beware, as Ardern put it. As noted, she is a largely risk-averse politician. Her claim that many New Zealanders will be ‘‘nervous’’ about the bubble is telling. The Government’s calculations depend on finding a balance between the success of our Covid elimination strategy, and the fortress New Zealand it has created, and the growing complaints from the tourism industry.

Ardern will have been certain that the public is largely on the side of protection, at least for now. That will of course change once vaccinations increase and outbreaks in both countries become more and more intermittent.

And while it is in the Opposition’s interests to amplify agitation about closed borders, public tolerance for isolation will last only so long. The minor political uproar that followed Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s foolish comments about a ‘‘cocky’’ tourism sector shows patience is wearing out among tourism operators. News that Tourism Minister Stuart Nash was to be greeted by angry protesters in Queenstown is another sign.

Funnily enough, the protest was called off only when news broke that a trans-Tasman bubble announcement was imminent.

The launch of the bubble will be both a calculated risk and a leap of faith, for [the] governments . . .