Prepare now for another La Nina
Farmers will need to prepare for more weather extremes when the third La Nina in a row hits the country next year.
During La Nina, waters of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America to the central tropical Pacific cool to below average temperatures. This affects weather across the globe.
La Nina brought rain to the northeast of the North Island, and less rainfall to the lower and western South Island, according to Niwa.
Niwa climatologist Ben Noll said while each La Nina had its own characteristics, farmers and growers could use the historical La Nina weather patterns in their regions to prepare for the same type of weather next year.
Climate extremes last year included drought in Southland and Otago. There were also many ex-tropical cyclones that brought flooding to some parts of the country. These cyclones were a hallmark of La Nina. They were not frequent but had a signifiant impact, Noll said.
Leaderbrand chief executive Richard Burke said weather extremes made the company decide to grow vegetables in multiple regions.
Having growers on different sides of mountain ranges paid off, as weather patterns had different effects on either side, Burke said.
Without this strategy it would be more difficult to absorb the consequences of weather events.
For vegetables that had short growth periods, the risk of planting later in a season, as opposed to planting earlier, had to be made based on long-term weather forecasts, he said.
It was difficult for growers to financially prepare for risks, because vegetables did not sell for fixed prices across the year, Burke said.
Growers needed to understand each season’s risks. The amount of finances they had to back them in case of a disaster would influence their decision to plant or not, he said.
Planning for climate change and severe weather was not the same, Burke said. The climate did not change in one year, but changed over time, he said.
Climate change had become a real consideration for growers who planted crops like grapes, that remained in the ground for years, he said.
For vegetable growers, annual patterns, like a wet or dry summer or frost, was immediately relevant, Burke said.
Burke said the fluctuations in consumer prices for fresh produce would remain.
Rabobank economist Michael Harvey said weather risks were a key driver of food inflation and would remain a risk over the next few months. If only one part of a growing season was affected, disruptions after a storm could be short term, he said.
There was always a risk that the weather did not normalise, especially when wet conditions persisted. If soil was already overly wet, a big rainstorm could trigger floods, Harvey said.
For vegetable growers, a storm could mean fewer vegetables on the market. This would increase prices, he said.
Harvey said he watched how consumer responses to food inflation fed back into the industry and how the value chain absorbed cost increases.
Southland dairy farmer Nigel Johnston said when Southland was dry, managing feed reserves and culling at the right time made the difference.
Johnston bought about 1500 bales of baleage – wet grass that is baled – every year, and fed his cows on the farm through the winter. This is different from a system where a contractor fed the cows on another farm through winter.
Most of the baleage he bought was surplus that other farmers had from spring.
He also contracted someone to grow grass that was baled. A good relationship with this contractor meant he could set a base price for feed. In times when he did not need feed, the contractor sold it to someone else.
Cows that did not fall pregnant, or did not produce enough milk, were culled every autumn. If it was a dry year he would cull earlier. This meant only profitable cows remained on the farm, he said.
Good planning meant he got through a longer than usual dry season last year, Johnston said.
Farmers and growers could use the historical La Nina weather patterns in their regions to prepare for the same type of weather next year.
Ben Noll Niwa climatologist