ELECTION ODDS
TAUPO¯ ’S ST VINCENT DE PAUL
2017 is the 150th anniversary of the establishment of St Vincent de Paul Society in New Zealand.
The society is the largest lay Catholic organisation in the world - 30million people in need are supported by 800,000 members in 151 countries: Fresh water, food, housing, disaster relief, medical aid and ongoing help. The Society is one of the non governmental agencies or NGO’s working with the United Nations.
In New Zealand, there are 6000 members and helpers. Their activities include visiting those who are lonely or in need at home, hospital or in prison. Giving practical help where possible, eg providing ongoing disaster help [as was needed after the Edgecumbe floods] and assisting migrants and refugees to settle in NZ. Each conference is linked to overseas groups. In Taupo¯ we support the Tokelau Islands and Sri Lanka.
The society has been active in Taupo¯ for many years. We support the poor, visit elderly, sick and lonely and provide practical assistance to those in need. We have a storage shed with household items and can refer and support people. For several years, we have had a social gathering after the midday mass at St Patrick’s Church, every second Friday of the month. All are welcome for lunch and a chat.
The Taupo¯ conference works closely with interchurch welfare. Each week we support the Food Bank by collecting donated items from parishioners , and buying fresh food and vegetables. This winter we have donated 300 litres of homemade soup to the Foodbank for distribution and we help supply emergency lunches for children at Taupo¯ schools.
The society was formed in 1833 by Frederic Ozanam. Friends, university students in Paris, were challenged to do works which demonstrated their faith and was inspired by the works of St Vincent de Paul. He was renowned for his work of supporting those in need and visiting them at home or in prison.
Heather King [secretary] and Cathy Holten [president] Not quite the same election fever as in the USA but looking at the voting history in Aotearoa, New Zealand some interesting facts come to light.
New Zealand voters have been historically very reluctant to give a political party in power a 4th term in office. In fact only 2 Prime Ministers accomplish that namely Richard Seddon in 1893 and more recent Keith Holyoake in 1960. The question is will this gridlock be broken? Historical facts tell us that we had 51 Prime Minister over the period between 1893 and 2017 and only 2 with a 4th term in office – Seddon nearly made 5 but died in office or rather on a passage between Australia and New Zealand.
The odds are 51 to 2 against the incumbent party that has only a 4% chance to be re -elected. This means the opposition party has a 96% chance to be elected for 3 terms in office. These fact will make the opposition very happy and the incumbent party obviously very nervous. The difference between then and now is that we have proportional representation that can alter the equation. But this has as yet not altered the probabilities because no government had a 4th term under proportional representation. I think the TAB should take note of these facts or punters might pick the right party and gallop home with a healthy windfall.
Kind Regards, FMW
HAVE YOUR SAY
Send your letter to the editor to daniel.hutchinson@fairfaxmedia.co.nz or mail to ‘The Editor, 45 Heuheu St, PO Box 205, Taupo¯.