Mild winter could impact Mt Ruapehu ski season

As winter swiftly approaches, people are starting to feel the cold but the Ruapehu region is not predicted to have a particularly chilly winter.

Niwa’s seasonal outlook for May to July shows this autumn could be the coldest since 2012 - with March being recorded as the most unusually cold March since 2012.

Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said although the seasonal outlook did not provide the full winter outlook, it captured the end of autumn and key insights into the beginning of winter.

Looking ahead to the winter season, conditions may not be ideal for skiers eager to head up Mt Ruapehu.

Niwa does not directly forecast seasonal snowfall but Noll said that at this point the “ingredients” did not look exactly right for a “really, snowy season”.

The two key ingredients for getting snow during winter are having enough moisture and cold temperatures.

Due to more mild temperatures being expected this winter, there may be infrequent moisture.

“That may not necessarily bode well for a lot of snow.”

But the situation could change. “In saying that, all it takes is one big dump of snow around school holidays and that can reverse the fortunes of an otherwise dim season for snow.”

Southerly winds during May will bring “chilly, frosty weather” to the region over the next few weeks.

“May could end up being the most unusually cold month.”

But a change in the wind direction when winter begins in June could cause temperatures to turn around.

“As we go into winter, recalling that some of our last winters have been the warmest on record, it does look like we have a tendency to have quite mild winters.

“I would be surprised if this winter actually ended up being really cold this year.”

In terms of rainfall, May looks to be quite a dry month for the lower North Island.

“There are quite a few soil moisture deficits and dryness still lingering around the region.”

For farmers and growers who are hoping for rain to alleviate the dryness of the past few months, it will be a slow process.

There could be a reduction in the number of rain days and more days with sunshine and dry conditions, Noll said.