Beef feeling change from pandemic
The global Covid-19 pandemic and African swine fever have changed beef consumption patterns in 2020 and will create opportunities for industry participants in the beef supply chain, according to Rabobank’s latest Beef Quarterly report.
Rabobank says Covid-19 lockdown measures have forced changes in dining habits, and increased eating at home as well as accelerating changes to distribution.
“This has benefited some, but been at the expense of others,” the report says. “As the impacts of ASF are overcome and disruptions from Covid-19 subside, old distribution channels will recover and it is likely that many consumers will revert to their previous habits. But we do see opportunities for those stakeholders in the supply chain that have gained through this period to hang on to new consumers and ‘lockin’ new consumption habits.”
Cattle prices lifted through August and September due to limited supplies, but started to fall during October as higherthan-normal levels of supply saw an easing of procurement competition between processors.
“Pricing in both islands has fallen well behind last year — when strong demand from China drove prices to record levels — and North and South Island bull prices are now down between 17 and 19 per cent year-on-year,” Raboresearch animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate said.
New Zealand’s average beef export returns remained largely unchanged throughout the last quarter, averaging $8027/tonne for September.
“There has been very little price movement in average export values since March, indicating that New Zealand’s beef exports have been generally resilient to Covid-19 market disruption to date, although ongoing foodservice restrictions in key markets continue to impact demand for higher-value prime cuts.
“Export volumes, on the other hand, did see some movement with these up by 8 per cent compared to the same period last season.”
Holgate says beef production for the 2020/21 season was likely to be comparable to 2019/20 with export volumes to be similar.
“New Zealand’s overall export volumes for the coming season are expected to remain largely stable, although climatic and seasonal factors will see normal fluctuations in export volumes throughout the season,” he says.