Is the TPP agreement really dead?

Stacey Kirk explains the deal’s fate depending on who wins the US presidency.

There are many sideshows to the American presidential race that are distracting much of the world right now. Between Donald Trump’s adulation for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump’s invitation for Russia to hack his opponents’ emails, Trump’s comments that he would abandon Nato members who ‘‘haven’t paid’’, and his claims there would be ‘‘no more trade deals’’, you would be forgiven for collapsing in a popcorn-induced stupor.

But it’s trade agreements – specifically the Trans-Pacific Partnership – that is the focus of this piece. That’s the controversial free trade deal between the US and 11 other nations, which would account for about 20 per cent of global trade.

And the positions of both presidential candidates are generating growing concern among governments, including New Zealand’s.

Both Trump and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton have said the TPP won’t be passed in their governments. That leaves a very small window for US President Barack Obama to pass it before he leaves office in November.

The trouble is, however, that Republicans are already claiming his to now be a ‘‘lame duck presidency’’, even though they are likely the key to passing the TPP bill.

And the session in which he might have a chance at passing it, he most certainly would be – that is, a president whose successor had already been elected. That congressional session would be in November, after the US presidential election, but before the new president and Congress takes office.

So can it get through?

Some commentators say yes, though all agree its chances are diminishing by the day.

If we start with the candidates: Trump’s position is easy, it’s protectionist, some would argue it’s incredibly isolationist – he won’t allow it. ‘‘America First.’’

Clinton’s position has opened to a lot more debate. She has given a promise to voters that she does not back the TPP in its current form, and she will not pass it if she becomes president.

As secretary of state, however, Clinton was a strong proponent of the deal as it was being negotiated.

She now says the version being adopted no longer affords enough protection to American workers.

Longtime Clinton ally and Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe further muddied the water when he told media this week that Clinton would support it as long as some changes were made. He quickly corrected his statement, but it further fanned the flames that Clinton could repeat the bait-andswitch performed by her husband in 1993, when he opposed the North American Free Trade Agreement, only to usher it through when he took office.

12 member countries: New Zealand, the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, Chile, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Peru and Mexico.

Tariffs will be removed from 93 per cent of New Zealand’s exports to TPPA countries.

Canada, US, Japan and Mexico will retain some tariffs on dairy, and Japan will lower, but not eliminate, its beef tariffs.

The Government estimates an annual $2.7 billion boost to GDP by 2030.

Experts on both sides say the average New Zealander is unlikely to notice any difference from the deal.

The deal will be signed in Auckland on February 4.

Each country needs to ratify the deal before it takes effect, and the US Congress is expected to take the longest.

Clinton is remaining resolute, however, that she opposes the TPP, a condition that will be vital for her to gain and hold the support of those who would rather Bernie Sanders was the Democratic candidate.

Taking her at her word, that leaves Obama. And a lame-duck session usually needs a contracted period of about a month to get through all remaining legislation.

Obama, most Republicans and a handful of other Democrats support the deal but, to push it through when the elected president has campaigned on opposing it, would be highly controversial, and erring towards unlikely.

Closer to home, Prime Minister John Key is more optimistic. ‘‘There’s no doubt it’s under a bit of pressure, because you’ve got both of the presidential nominations now coming out opposing TPP.

‘‘It’s not unusual for politicians on the campaign trail to say one thing and then for something quite different to happen.’’

But Key is putting most of his eggs into the lame-duck basket, and the premise that Obama’s support may win over the support of Sanders fans. ‘‘Let’s remember, that if it’s ultimately Hillary Clinton, she’s getting a huge amount of support from Barack Obama. One of his key policies has been TPP and the politics of that is very strong for the United States.

‘‘It puts them front and centrestage of what would otherwise be a vacuum in Asia. If the Americans don’t fill it, others will,’’ Key said.

What happens if it doesn’t get pushed through?

It would die – at least for a large number of years. Claims parts of it could be renegotiated quickly are wishful thinking. The deal took seven years to negotiate, and any changes would trigger new rounds of negotiations from all 12 countries, not just a few.

Its death could be considered either positive, or negative, depending on one’s politics.

All 12 members have signed the deal but all are waiting for the US to ratify it, before doing the same.

Many would see little point in going ahead with the deal if the US was not involved and, in fact, many of the same Asia-Pacific countries are seeking a separate trade deal called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), regardless of the TPP’s fate.