Migration surprises at record high

Net migration has hit a new alltime high, confounding expectations that the tide might have turned.

Official figures showed net migration hit 69,954 in the year to September 30, up by about 800 on the previous month.

After a long run of new records, economists had expected net migration – the difference between those leaving New Zealand and those moving here long term – to begin to ease, on signs that the monthly increase was slipping.

However, in September net migration was 6300, the strongest month on record and the first time in six months the number had topped 6000.

Slightly more than 125,000 migrants arrived in the period, with more than 55,000 leaving.

While the largest net gains in the population are coming from India and China, both accounting for more than 10,000, the overall record continues to be driven from a change in patterns to Australia.

Back in 2011 New Zealand was losing about 40,000 people a year across the Tasman, but in the year to September 30, New Zealand gained 2000 from Australia, the 12th straight month of net gains.

Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface had forecast a drop in net migration, as foreigners who arrived on temporary work or student visas over the past three years start to depart.

While that was happening, ‘‘this is being swamped by a lift in arrivals of those on work visas, which were up 14 per cent in September on a year ago’’.

"Kiwis can expect longer hospital queues and more competition for jobs and housing." NZ First leader Winston Peters

The latest figures mean net migration has added the equivalent of a town the size of Rotorua to New Zealand’s population in one year.

‘‘The annual net gain reflects record high migrant arrivals and fewer migrant departures,’’ Statistics New Zealand’s Jo-Anne Skinner said. ‘‘Most of the arrivals are people coming in with work visas, which also includes working holidaymakers.’’

Strong net migration has been credited with boosting New Zealand’s economic growth, as well as pushing up house prices and putting pressure on infrastructure.

The topic has become increasingly political. In recent days the Government has announced tentative moves to curb the numbers who can get visas to come here, although it is unclear whether it would make a substantial difference.

Winston Peters, the leader of the generally anti-immigration NZ First, said the increase was ‘‘destroying the Kiwi way of life’’.

‘‘Kiwis can expect longer hospital queues and more competition for jobs and housing.’’

On Wednesday, Statistics NZ said New Zealand’s population was likely to hit 5 million by about 2020.