National’s future is up in the air

OPINION: What was meant to be an easy handover in National has turned into a leadership brawl as MPs are shaken out of their complacency that the next election is a done deal. After the shock of Prime Minister John Key’s sudden departure, National’s MPs are contemplating life not just after Key but the possibility of life back in Opposition.

Finance Minister Bill English is still the front-runner to succeed Key, but the emergence of two more contenders, Judith ‘‘Crusher’’ Collins and Health Minister Jonathan Coleman, is the first rumbling of opposition to a status-quo candidate.

There is no love lost between Collins and English – Collins entered Parliament in the 2002 election, National’s worst defeat ever, and was part of the faction that rolled English soon after.

Coleman, meanwhile, is emerging as the champion of a restless back bench seeking generational change.

Transport Minister Simon Bridges is expected to confirm his bid for the deputy leadership today, a further sign of a mood for change in the caucus.

For most of Key’s MPs, leadership contests are something they’ve not had much experience of – it’s been a decade since National’s leadership last changed hands. But, as some of the old hands will tell them, there are few things more destabilising and potentially divisive than a leadership stoush.

Key’s anointing of Finance Minister Bill English as his likely successor was an attempt to stave that off. But English may have squandered his early advantage by appearing unprepared for questions from media, despite having advance warning that Key was planning to resign.

It raised eyebrows even among some of his strongest supporters.

Collins didn’t waste any time seizing her opportunity; she is pitching herself as the face and voice of National’s heartland.

She is clearly positioning herself as the counter to a rampant NZ First – Winston Peters’ win in Northland has spooked many of the party’s provincial MPs, and most are reading the tea leaves of Brexit and the US election for signs that National too could be swept out by a mood for change.

Up till last week, that wasn’t enough to keep them up at night. After the shock of losing Key, they now fear anything is possible.