Peters key to fate of minnows

OPINION: Metres of online commentary have been taken up talking about the possibility of NZ First squeezing the Greens out of Government in a potential threeway Centre-Left Government after September 23.

But much less understood is the existential threat Winston Peters represents to the three smaller parties on National’s side.

In truth, he is set to hold the key - as in ‘‘of the jail’’ - for their political futures.

If Peters installs a Labour-led Government it would, at the very least, require the Green Partys’ abstention, giving it some bargaining power.

But if instead he puts together a Government with National, the two parties between them would have an overwhelming majority; on current polling 68 seats in the 120-seat Parliament.

That would leave the Maori Party, ACT and United Future surplus to requirements.

If Peters had an incentive to sideline the Greens, even when they could play a pivotal role, imagine his attitude to the three micro-parties.

In that scenario they would bring nothing but ballast to key votes in the House.

And that’s before you consider Peters’ attitude to ACT leader David Seymour (‘‘a cuckolded political prostitute’’) and the Maori Party (a separatist entity based on seats he is moving to scrap).

Why would he dial them into positions of influence, let alone ministerial or Cabinet posts?

Prime Minister Bill English has made his play to avoid the clutches of NZ First, effectively making Seymour and United Future leader Peter Dunne the de facto National candidates.

But what if English fails to reforge the current governing arrangements? It’s difficult to see why he would resist a demand from Peters to leave them shivering on the cross benches.

Seymour gets it. He has been hammering the message that only ACT can keep Peters out of power he has called Peters ‘‘an ongoing national disaster’’. But it is not a one-way street. Just as ACT could be crucial in keeping Peters from power, it is at least equally likely NZ First will be in a position to return the favour.

ACT would be in a dreadful position on the cross benches, with no role in Government, nugatory influence through its vote(s) and no friends in Opposition.